{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4ef8296-818b-41dd-a4c1-ad4dd8c5ab3c", "symbol": "EQMA3B", "name": "Equatorial Maranh\u00e3o Distribuidora de Energia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.015, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.839, "architecture_energy": 68.725, "architecture_maturity": 13.425, "architecture_confidence": 89.889, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.42, "rotation_up": 15.11, "upward_expansion": 14.08, "deceleration": 38.85, "rotation_down": 69.33, "downward_expansion": 89.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.571334, 29.875818, 30.331626, 30.742245 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.860001, "trend_reference": 30.959382, "distance_from_trend": -0.067811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.507202, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.015713, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.029072, "excess_performance": 0.027977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001459, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145998, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00807, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029072, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.275168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7600, "relative_activity": 4.578313, "balance": 0.275168, "dry_up": 1.762048, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033477, "annualized_volatility": 0.282187, "from_high_reference": -0.165314, "from_low_reference": 0.17505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.959382, "fair_value_reference": 25.507202, "structural_low": 28.262771, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.013282, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017549, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.145926, "worst_return": -0.178359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.044314, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.01084, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.303481, "worst_return": -0.271452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.077314, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.018388, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.311399, "worst_return": -0.260567, 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31.274028, 31.615114, 31.319967 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 30.0, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 2040.0, "trend": 30.871852, "fair_value": 24.975711, "relative_strength": -6.154322, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.849441, "energy": 32.74952, "activity_lines": [ 30.616, 31.036364, 31.481107, 31.260981 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 31.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1725.0, "trend": 30.88223, "fair_value": 25.050241, "relative_strength": -4.121791, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.193392, "energy": 31.631244, "activity_lines": [ 30.670667, 30.984006, 31.439076, 31.269248 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 29.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1280.0, "trend": 30.878093, "fair_value": 25.115179, "relative_strength": -6.828152, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.748653, "energy": 40.665868, "activity_lines": [ 30.292, 30.68012, 31.25527, 31.186524 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1270.0, "trend": 30.973249, "fair_value": 25.189749, "relative_strength": -3.589383, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.428961, "energy": 22.877292, "activity_lines": [ 30.606, 30.749694, 31.2452, 31.220195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1120.0, "trend": 31.031824, "fair_value": 25.249238, "relative_strength": -8.159971, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.046781, "energy": 23.776511, "activity_lines": [ 30.433333, 30.581818, 31.095721, 31.158695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.0, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 1145.0, "trend": 31.041669, "fair_value": 25.310711, "relative_strength": -9.812679, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.305732, "energy": 40.309358, "activity_lines": [ 30.298667, 30.433091, 30.945156, 31.092126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.01, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 1200.0, "trend": 31.019372, "fair_value": 25.367352, "relative_strength": -7.231349, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.885527, "energy": 32.539822, "activity_lines": [ 30.167333, 30.322182, 30.801095, 31.025567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.75, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 1255.0, "trend": 30.978342, "fair_value": 25.413825, "relative_strength": -7.80112, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.214668, "energy": 58.274254, "activity_lines": [ 30.015333, 30.191091, 30.64701, 30.943672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.0, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 1280.0, "trend": 31.003775, "fair_value": 25.472155, "relative_strength": -8.696853, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.118086, "energy": 58.564327, "activity_lines": [ 29.936667, 30.128, 30.532709, 30.880553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.860001, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 1660.0, "trend": 30.959382, "fair_value": 25.507202, "relative_strength": -9.015713, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.838696, "energy": 68.72464, "activity_lines": [ 29.571334, 29.875818, 30.331626, 30.742245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }