{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4f0c362-88d1-4aff-9668-da9813644ca3", "symbol": "AAV", "name": "Advantage Energy Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 81.218, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.67, "architecture_energy": 48.469, "architecture_maturity": 6.179, "architecture_confidence": 57.07, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.95, "rotation_up": 65.85, "upward_expansion": 54.99, "deceleration": 15.67, "rotation_down": 15.26, "downward_expansion": 25.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.857333, 10.646364, 10.377095, 10.412172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.8, "trend_reference": 10.513667, "distance_from_trend": 0.027234, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.229295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055791, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.881258, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018182, "excess_performance": -0.138603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045485, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068764, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128813, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089878, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.412947, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2348400, "relative_activity": 0.582198, "balance": 1.412947, "dry_up": 0.811629, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051282, "annualized_volatility": 0.313579, "from_high_reference": -0.181818, "from_low_reference": 0.17519 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.513667, "fair_value_reference": 10.229295, "structural_low": 9.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033674, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017964, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.086558, "worst_return": -0.041625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.105747, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.14519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162107, "worst_return": -0.010902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.082759, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.037258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126858, "worst_return": -0.08612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011275, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004509, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051771, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.081209, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054131, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018182, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.56, "volume": 3930600, "typical_volume": 3033555.0, "trend": 8.196333, "fair_value": 6.729423, "relative_strength": 4.869867, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.882871, "energy": 80.154872, "activity_lines": [ 9.402667, 9.154727, 8.602714, 8.376022 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 8.93, "volume": 1916800, "typical_volume": 2998650.0, "trend": 8.214333, "fair_value": 6.7725, "relative_strength": -1.508849, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.019496, "energy": 51.078019, "activity_lines": [ 9.268, 9.162545, 8.670571, 8.423355 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 9.86, "volume": 1810100, "typical_volume": 2938725.0, "trend": 8.269333, "fair_value": 6.822949, "relative_strength": 5.480966, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.622437, "energy": 56.088275, "activity_lines": [ 9.448, 9.320909, 8.820476, 8.529527 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 9.38, "volume": 1606600, "typical_volume": 2856640.0, "trend": 8.315333, "fair_value": 6.871538, "relative_strength": 3.086868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"direction": -4.180136, "energy": 16.572989, "activity_lines": [ 10.439333, 10.260727, 10.197905, 10.330624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.1, "volume": 2622200, "typical_volume": 4202660.0, "trend": 10.547667, "fair_value": 10.209359, "relative_strength": -8.87233, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.567897, "energy": 45.384712, "activity_lines": [ 10.692667, 10.430545, 10.271857, 10.36514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.0, "volume": 4761600, "typical_volume": 4249980.0, "trend": 10.523333, "fair_value": 10.219872, "relative_strength": -8.83831, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.292067, "energy": 49.700006, "activity_lines": [ 10.836667, 10.563091, 10.333857, 10.394323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.8, "volume": 2348400, "typical_volume": 4033680.0, "trend": 10.513667, "fair_value": 10.229295, "relative_strength": -12.881258, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.66974, "energy": 48.469228, "activity_lines": [ 10.857333, 10.646364, 10.377095, 10.412172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }