{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4f293ed-4d8f-44ee-adba-d4e2c70056b3", "symbol": "EUUS", "name": "WisdomTree Long USD Short EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.359, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.949, "architecture_energy": 46.404, "architecture_maturity": 65.15, "architecture_confidence": 48.392, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.56, "rotation_up": 48.03, "upward_expansion": 71.47, "deceleration": 62.52, "rotation_down": 26.17, "downward_expansion": 19.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.626667, 57.655636, 57.275762, 57.01757 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 57.310001, "trend_reference": 56.643, "distance_from_trend": 0.011776, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.048654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004581, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.811405, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031683, "excess_performance": -0.139209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011776, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009643, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004581, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0205, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005996, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031683, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.266745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 671, "relative_activity": 0.80316, "balance": 0.266745, "dry_up": 1.984858, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007033, "annualized_volatility": 0.056005, "from_high_reference": -0.015292, "from_low_reference": 0.092035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.643, "fair_value_reference": 57.048654, "structural_low": 54.48, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.029697, "regime_survival": 0.69697, "best_return": 0.030809, "worst_return": -0.051839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.012404, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.030726, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.066902, "worst_return": -0.071953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005287, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.12982, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.109158, "worst_return": -0.068858, "sufficient": 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56.250666, "fair_value": 56.916026, "relative_strength": -9.993546, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.837253, "energy": 87.048365, "activity_lines": [ 57.417999, 57.046181, 56.737428, 56.517483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 57.740002, "volume": 207, "typical_volume": 1123.85, "trend": 56.307333, "fair_value": 56.935, "relative_strength": -12.488267, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.500244, "energy": 89.636255, "activity_lines": [ 57.594, 57.225636, 56.853476, 56.613569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 57.799999, "volume": 869, "typical_volume": 1126.3, "trend": 56.381666, "fair_value": 56.963205, "relative_strength": -11.679374, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.702828, "energy": 90.144124, "activity_lines": [ 57.711333, 57.386909, 56.963857, 56.709871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.779999, "volume": 1274, "typical_volume": 1143.65, "trend": 56.451333, "fair_value": 56.987436, "relative_strength": -10.104127, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.462961, "energy": 87.963244, "activity_lines": [ 57.775333, 57.513636, 57.062238, 56.800086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.150002, "volume": 378, "typical_volume": 1028.6, "trend": 56.542333, "fair_value": 57.011346, "relative_strength": -9.067337, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.536283, "energy": 91.853609, "activity_lines": [ 57.909334, 57.674, 57.185333, 56.909677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.509998, "volume": 4310, "typical_volume": 965.6, "trend": 56.605333, "fair_value": 57.030641, "relative_strength": -10.289862, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.497945, "energy": 59.949609, "activity_lines": [ 57.788666, 57.690909, 57.240476, 56.972107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.310001, "volume": 671, "typical_volume": 835.45, "trend": 56.643, "fair_value": 57.048654, "relative_strength": -12.811405, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.948654, "energy": 46.404401, "activity_lines": [ 57.626667, 57.655636, 57.275762, 57.01757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }