{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4f5172c-109f-45e7-b528-d7eab7a160ec", "symbol": "FMR", "name": "Future Mineral Resources Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.513, "architecture_energy": 29.92, "architecture_maturity": 23.609, "architecture_confidence": 69.946, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.99, "rotation_up": 13.12, "upward_expansion": 12.48, "deceleration": 59.25, "rotation_down": 60.23, "downward_expansion": 66.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.279667, 0.290818, 0.288786, 0.292204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.28, "trend_reference": 0.2995, "distance_from_trend": -0.065109, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.255288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096798, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.622665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056604, "excess_performance": -0.063818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065109, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050211, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096798, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094777, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056604, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.667425, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47500, "relative_activity": 0.366371, "balance": 0.667425, "dry_up": 1.654261, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134615, "annualized_volatility": 0.787867, "from_high_reference": -0.391304, "from_low_reference": 0.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2995, "fair_value_reference": 0.255288, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007963, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.227273, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.219458, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.333333, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.484848, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.477133, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.3, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.409091, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.348122, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.6, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.32, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.239437, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.389662, "energy": 8.179387, "activity_lines": [ 0.288, 0.281182, 0.289333, 0.295677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.33, "volume": 81000, "typical_volume": 110050.0, "trend": 0.305833, "fair_value": 0.261122, "relative_strength": -4.935992, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.978381, "energy": 17.084584, "activity_lines": [ 0.306667, 0.289818, 0.292738, 0.297172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.35, "volume": 369700, "typical_volume": 127405.0, "trend": 0.306167, "fair_value": 0.261122, "relative_strength": 0.168395, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.046023, "energy": 36.570007, "activity_lines": [ 0.326667, 0.301727, 0.297762, 0.300022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.265, "volume": 583800, "typical_volume": 143145.0, "trend": 0.3035, "fair_value": 0.259295, "relative_strength": -24.097565, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.641034, "energy": 21.909429, "activity_lines": [ 0.312333, 0.297091, 0.294405, 0.297366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.265, "volume": 32500, "typical_volume": 137745.0, "trend": 0.300833, "fair_value": 0.257468, "relative_strength": -24.087358, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.489136, "energy": 16.496638, "activity_lines": [ 0.296, 0.292909, 0.291452, 0.294882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.28, "volume": 194100, "typical_volume": 136735.0, "trend": 0.300667, "fair_value": 0.256058, "relative_strength": -19.259723, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.93869, "energy": 19.495194, "activity_lines": [ 0.285667, 0.291909, 0.290071, 0.293538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.28, "volume": 47500, "typical_volume": 129650.0, "trend": 0.2995, "fair_value": 0.255288, "relative_strength": -21.622665, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.513143, "energy": 29.920308, "activity_lines": [ 0.279667, 0.290818, 0.288786, 0.292204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }