{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4fac6fc-bb2d-4253-99ff-8315f8270c20", "symbol": "SK", "name": "Sirakorn Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.889, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.487, "architecture_energy": 7.919, "architecture_maturity": 43.376, "architecture_confidence": 42.319, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.27, "rotation_up": 36.82, "upward_expansion": 41.1, "deceleration": 68.61, "rotation_down": 21.94, "downward_expansion": 34.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.528667, 0.528727, 0.52913, 0.528902 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.53, "trend_reference": 0.528386, "distance_from_trend": 0.003055, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.559493, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.971645, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017171, "excess_performance": -0.175154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003055, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000864, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011572, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.507935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163400, "relative_activity": 0.292965, "balance": 0.507935, "dry_up": 1.115922, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049347, "annualized_volatility": 0.134904, "from_high_reference": -0.139316, "from_low_reference": 0.075854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.528386, "fair_value_reference": 0.559493, "structural_low": 0.492632, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.01613, "positive_rate": 0.304348, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": -0.027871, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.084506, "worst_return": -0.150684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.050505, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.097356, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.140844, "worst_return": -0.247424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051724, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.086468, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.136987, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.094828, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023374, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.062499, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.53, "volume": 1094000, "typical_volume": 553620.0, "trend": 0.52879, "fair_value": 0.560016, "relative_strength": -17.402223, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.614654, "energy": 11.732712, "activity_lines": [ 0.529333, 0.530545, 0.529584, 0.529102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.52, "volume": 735900, "typical_volume": 558465.0, "trend": 0.527807, "fair_value": 0.559772, "relative_strength": -19.283558, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.165482, "energy": 8.852855, "activity_lines": [ 0.525333, 0.528545, 0.528739, 0.528535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.53, "volume": 953600, "typical_volume": 571020.0, "trend": 0.528105, "fair_value": 0.559591, "relative_strength": -17.475123, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.968829, "energy": 5.798711, "activity_lines": [ 0.526, 0.528727, 0.528897, 0.528677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.53, "volume": 636700, "typical_volume": 560435.0, "trend": 0.528404, "fair_value": 0.559568, "relative_strength": -16.027122, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.434834, "energy": 2.25717, "activity_lines": [ 0.527333, 0.528727, 0.529013, 0.528799 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.53, "volume": 163400, "typical_volume": 557745.0, "trend": 0.528386, "fair_value": 0.559493, "relative_strength": -14.971645, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.486761, "energy": 7.918698, "activity_lines": [ 0.528667, 0.528727, 0.52913, 0.528902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }