{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4fd9e9f-2a34-4387-8d1f-33e139644ee9", "symbol": "XLY", "name": "SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST SST CNSMR DISCRETIONARY SLCT SCTR SPDR E", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.902, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.506, "architecture_energy": 9.649, "architecture_maturity": 20.651, "architecture_confidence": 49.224, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.91, "rotation_up": 36.85, "upward_expansion": 26.42, "deceleration": 49.73, "rotation_down": 35.43, "downward_expansion": 30.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.000667, 115.843881, 116.368952, 115.904864 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 119.86, "trend_reference": 116.102175, "distance_from_trend": 0.032367, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 102.118429, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.695609, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017838, "excess_performance": -0.107787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032367, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008554, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016234, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.59301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36565197, "relative_activity": 0.909829, "balance": 1.59301, "dry_up": 0.987327, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040652, "annualized_volatility": 0.215077, "from_high_reference": -0.039319, "from_low_reference": 0.139462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 116.102175, "fair_value_reference": 102.118429, "structural_low": 105.19, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.023442, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.004631, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.088671, "worst_return": -0.093899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.040329, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.034315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236424, "worst_return": -0.144314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.110256, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.055875, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.247671, "worst_return": -0.123835, 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advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.882734, "energy": 21.880014, "activity_lines": [ 115.900852, 116.873232, 115.9906, 116.238407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 117.12, "volume": 36503871, "typical_volume": 44651092.7, "trend": 117.02409, "fair_value": 101.108602, "relative_strength": -8.572641, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.436604, "energy": 14.494735, "activity_lines": [ 116.080231, 116.805268, 116.172208, 116.23999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 117.24, "volume": 47791025, "typical_volume": 44766746.85, "trend": 116.924508, "fair_value": 101.311832, "relative_strength": -9.477203, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.25151, "energy": 8.337325, "activity_lines": [ 116.533294, 116.783297, 116.359687, 116.253919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 115.44, "volume": 38059540, "typical_volume": 43974776.3, "trend": 116.726744, "fair_value": 101.515874, "relative_strength": -9.238473, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.422638, "energy": 12.080791, "activity_lines": [ 116.212184, 116.454959, 116.375645, 116.158145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 109.41, "volume": 42329968, "typical_volume": 42005993.75, "trend": 116.313361, "fair_value": 101.675683, "relative_strength": -13.185468, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.972864, "energy": 39.997432, "activity_lines": [ 113.942667, 115.112377, 115.822992, 115.686097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 116.09, "volume": 41764529, "typical_volume": 40953211.05, "trend": 116.245737, "fair_value": 101.882104, "relative_strength": -8.685053, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.260814, "energy": 28.36926, "activity_lines": [ 114.400667, 115.109505, 115.929416, 115.671686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.86, "volume": 36565197, "typical_volume": 40189108.2, "trend": 116.102175, "fair_value": 102.118429, "relative_strength": -8.695609, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.505747, "energy": 9.648669, "activity_lines": [ 116.000667, 115.843881, 116.368952, 115.904864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }