{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b4fe2429-e9d6-48e0-ada4-2b044d5ce374",
    "symbol": "AGNG",
    "name": "GLOBAL X AGING POPULATION ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 58.436,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 46.293,
    "architecture_energy": 54.65,
    "architecture_maturity": 9.783,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.536,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.06,
        "rotation_up": 71.22,
        "upward_expansion": 62.35,
        "deceleration": 19.91,
        "rotation_down": 18.21,
        "downward_expansion": 18.35
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        37.264927,
        36.773671,
        36.13563,
        36.06808
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 37.9184,
    "trend_reference": 36.206353,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.047286,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 31.585455,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200502,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -6.757043,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.009432,
    "excess_performance": -0.178022,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047286,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003169,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.200502,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072045,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06757,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.091493,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009432,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.833674,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 35948,
      "relative_activity": 0.53753,
      "balance": 1.833674,
      "dry_up": 0.622081,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034863,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.163243,
      "from_high_reference": -0.039554,
      "from_low_reference": 0.196205
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 36.206353,
      "fair_value_reference": 31.585455,
      "structural_low": 33.775525,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.0036,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00879,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.032239,
        "worst_return": -0.118574,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.016559,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011087,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.053297,
        "worst_return": -0.098835,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.046056,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.072247,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.076109,
        "worst_return": -0.170984,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.081618,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027212,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.196616,
        "worst_return": -0.024267,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043478,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.000205,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.041163,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.022382,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.002753,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.031239,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040328,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.113258,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.065978,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005174,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.060382,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005357,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027685,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 36790.1,
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 35.4888,
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        "typical_volume": 99707.0,
        "trend": 35.900764,
        "fair_value": 30.750135,
        "relative_strength": -8.929703,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -3.706226,
        "energy": 5.657594,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 96583.0,
        "trend": 35.919663,
        "fair_value": 30.797661,
        "relative_strength": -11.331157,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 8.534538,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.69717,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 34.806116,
        "volume": 114700,
        "typical_volume": 98959.55,
        "trend": 35.964446,
        "fair_value": 30.84399,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.247398,
        "energy": 21.288332,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 99501.5,
        "trend": 35.986572,
        "fair_value": 30.890329,
        "relative_strength": -15.695958,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.762966,
        "energy": 43.653251,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 98948.35,
        "trend": 36.049231,
        "fair_value": 30.949135,
        "relative_strength": -13.97113,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.044392,
        "energy": 44.198108,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 34.95239,
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        "typical_volume": 94776.45,
        "trend": 36.091986,
        "fair_value": 31.000456,
        "relative_strength": -17.730594,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -55.828535,
        "energy": 42.887729,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 34.771265,
        "volume": 66958,
        "typical_volume": 78396.55,
        "trend": 36.120245,
        "fair_value": 31.050491,
        "relative_strength": -13.997223,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "direction": -57.088372,
        "energy": 36.738945,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 35.015421,
        "volume": 73035,
        "typical_volume": 74625.85,
        "trend": 36.108046,
        "fair_value": 31.097662,
        "relative_strength": -15.011783,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -50.489815,
        "energy": 27.408617,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 69985.3,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "direction": -61.38562,
        "energy": 40.743273,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 36.087236,
        "volume": 162394,
        "typical_volume": 74854.1,
        "trend": 36.041427,
        "fair_value": 31.201342,
        "relative_strength": -10.066843,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -30.067075,
        "energy": 18.292554,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.151419,
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          35.339874,
          35.704109
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 37.0629,
        "volume": 38376,
        "typical_volume": 73137.8,
        "trend": 36.072265,
        "fair_value": 31.269,
        "relative_strength": -8.248853,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -6.494789,
        "energy": 9.799098,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.829066,
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          35.77001
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 36.514,
        "volume": 65870,
        "typical_volume": 73263.15,
        "trend": 36.09874,
        "fair_value": 31.328562,
        "relative_strength": -10.987677,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 15.679777,
        "energy": 19.699389,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.183046,
          35.683156,
          35.537881,
          35.798509
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 36.7096,
        "volume": 22915,
        "typical_volume": 69759.45,
        "trend": 36.120455,
        "fair_value": 31.387244,
        "relative_strength": -6.490375,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 21.553124,
        "energy": 28.790455,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.486044,
          35.923684,
          35.639994,
          35.837919
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 36.8969,
        "volume": 47378,
        "typical_volume": 67955.15,
        "trend": 36.139456,
        "fair_value": 31.447823,
        "relative_strength": -4.340822,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.659202,
        "energy": 42.677029,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.738529,
          36.163658,
          35.767755,
          35.888013
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 37.1895,
        "volume": 60169,
        "typical_volume": 68070.5,
        "trend": 36.177406,
        "fair_value": 31.515386,
        "relative_strength": -3.992564,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 28.520872,
        "energy": 46.40598,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.916987,
          36.416192,
          35.920875,
          35.955757
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 37.9184,
        "volume": 35948,
        "typical_volume": 66876.3,
        "trend": 36.206353,
        "fair_value": 31.585455,
        "relative_strength": -6.757043,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 46.293432,
        "energy": 54.64999,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.264927,
          36.773671,
          36.13563,
          36.06808
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}