{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b50f14e7-0fd9-4ffd-a5aa-264a8d57dc42", "symbol": "EYPT", "name": "Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.975, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.574, "architecture_energy": 21.061, "architecture_maturity": 16.43, "architecture_confidence": 86.764, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.07, "rotation_up": 22.83, "upward_expansion": 8.04, "deceleration": 43.88, "rotation_down": 47.21, "downward_expansion": 72.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.089333, 13.294727, 13.295619, 13.458667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.89, "trend_reference": 13.737333, "distance_from_trend": 0.011113, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.28641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130517, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.44419, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044361, "excess_performance": -0.143093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011113, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050852, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130517, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014378, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124442, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021487, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044361, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.963129, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10755727, "relative_activity": 1.855603, "balance": 2.963129, "dry_up": 1.38794, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13953, "annualized_volatility": 0.627088, "from_high_reference": -0.273155, "from_low_reference": 0.439378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.737333, "fair_value_reference": 12.28641, "structural_low": 11.295, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.057895, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.079033, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.331492, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013727, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.134681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.690196, "worst_return": -0.675223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.220619, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.164577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.048343, "worst_return": -0.527403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.11942, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008551, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.261053, "worst_return": 0.030392, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.456873, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.231419, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.178038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.252632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.211111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.234807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.156371, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132926, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", 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"fair_value": 12.278205, "relative_strength": -7.424988, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.314164, "energy": 10.999218, "activity_lines": [ 14.046, 13.562, 13.519952, 13.761806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.3, "volume": 6506394, "typical_volume": 5611422.75, "trend": 14.193, "fair_value": 12.290321, "relative_strength": -12.762762, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.186824, "energy": 12.511006, "activity_lines": [ 13.881333, 13.557091, 13.476429, 13.695312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.19, "volume": 6502449, "typical_volume": 5441408.7, "trend": 13.989667, "fair_value": 12.292564, "relative_strength": -18.692422, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.170052, "energy": 16.026003, "activity_lines": [ 13.328667, 13.356909, 13.347476, 13.566086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.25, "volume": 8415387, "typical_volume": 5514538.25, "trend": 13.815333, "fair_value": 12.288397, "relative_strength": -18.753744, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.439001, "energy": 28.514153, "activity_lines": [ 12.888667, 13.170545, 13.24119, 13.453849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.89, "volume": 10755727, "typical_volume": 5796352.05, "trend": 13.737333, "fair_value": 12.28641, "relative_strength": -12.44419, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.573855, "energy": 21.061439, "activity_lines": [ 13.089333, 13.294727, 13.295619, 13.458667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }