{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b51729e9-8b44-4ed3-88ab-d4dc8c5fa050", "symbol": "2568", "name": "Listed Index Fund US Equity (NASDAQ100) No Currency Hedge", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.382, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.544, "architecture_energy": 25.623, "architecture_maturity": 67.425, "architecture_confidence": 76.209, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.06, "rotation_up": 26.44, "upward_expansion": 60.0, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 29.44, "downward_expansion": 21.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 7968.2, 8050.364933, 7982.963142, 7728.067631 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8000.0, "trend_reference": 7405.243962, "distance_from_trend": 0.080316, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5589.142675, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.431347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.736942, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.221934, "excess_performance": 0.012675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080316, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064619, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.431347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050237, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02576, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.221934, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.739915, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52207, "relative_activity": 0.407985, "balance": 0.739915, "dry_up": 1.424962, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03468, "annualized_volatility": 0.168652, "from_high_reference": -0.048372, "from_low_reference": 0.374556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7405.243962, "fair_value_reference": 5589.142675, "structural_low": 6258.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008039, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00517, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.13526, "worst_return": -0.034691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.146891, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2354, "worst_return": -0.130352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.172268, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.008473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219063, "worst_return": -0.004731, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"volume": 52207, "typical_volume": 127963.05, "trend": 7405.243962, "fair_value": 5589.142675, "relative_strength": -4.736942, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.543831, "energy": 25.622767, "activity_lines": [ 7968.2, 8050.364933, 7982.963142, 7728.067631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }