{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5191c7e-f8f9-4df9-823f-d87dd39db3aa", "symbol": "UKR", "name": "Ukrproduct Group Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.83, "architecture_energy": 28.099, "architecture_maturity": 28.892, "architecture_confidence": 78.463, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.14, "rotation_up": 22.1, "upward_expansion": 7.38, "deceleration": 54.57, "rotation_down": 45.18, "downward_expansion": 71.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.062483, 0.062805, 0.065546, 0.067742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.065, "trend_reference": 0.071058, "distance_from_trend": -0.085259, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.044547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.459129, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.676369, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1875, "excess_performance": -0.238735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085259, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.459129, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066235, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037538, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.4355, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102086, "relative_activity": 3.173625, "balance": 12.4355, "dry_up": 2.608745, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153325, "annualized_volatility": 0.559416, "from_high_reference": -0.35, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.071058, "fair_value_reference": 0.044547, "structural_low": 0.0509, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.37037, "median_excess_return": -0.01964, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.857143, "worst_return": -0.388235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.115556, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.087835, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.984127, "worst_return": -0.352941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.215447, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.260059, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.222222, "worst_return": -0.528235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.223441, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.173604, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.777778, "worst_return": -0.618095, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.609524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.180272, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078838, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0225, "volume": 21848, "typical_volume": 34386.95, "trend": 0.025583, "fair_value": 0.039034, "relative_strength": -12.46947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"typical_volume": 34159.15, "trend": 0.072058, "fair_value": 0.044066, "relative_strength": -20.983987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.998275, "energy": 46.683266, "activity_lines": [ 0.0617, 0.063827, 0.066658, 0.068943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.06, "volume": 3543, "typical_volume": 27062.7, "trend": 0.071558, "fair_value": 0.044291, "relative_strength": -21.885936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.70306, "energy": 43.492256, "activity_lines": [ 0.06125, 0.062727, 0.065844, 0.068165 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.065, "volume": 102086, "typical_volume": 32167.0, "trend": 0.071058, "fair_value": 0.044547, "relative_strength": -15.676369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.829725, "energy": 28.099256, "activity_lines": [ 0.062483, 0.062805, 0.065546, 0.067742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }