{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5235bbf-0e34-411a-8e95-0f63d6ed31db", "symbol": "PRECHA", "name": "Preecha Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.449, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.464, "architecture_energy": 24.609, "architecture_maturity": 9.003, "architecture_confidence": 58.896, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.04, "rotation_up": 60.88, "upward_expansion": 42.56, "deceleration": 33.49, "rotation_down": 17.22, "downward_expansion": 17.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.448, 0.428727, 0.420238, 0.431161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.44, "trend_reference": 0.445333, "distance_from_trend": -0.011976, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.804103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.452806, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.599899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.06383, "excess_performance": -0.256155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011976, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088055, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.452806, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060806, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129123, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.034186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 337900, "relative_activity": 2.243841, "balance": 1.034186, "dry_up": 1.184508, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106643, "annualized_volatility": 0.406185, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.257143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.445333, "fair_value_reference": 0.804103, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01105, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.021518, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.39823, "worst_return": -0.092391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051111, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.076564, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.690265, "worst_return": -0.201754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.1, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.023908, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.584071, "worst_return": -0.596491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.327434, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.32709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.340659, "worst_return": -0.412281, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.244444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044248, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.353535, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.403226, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075949, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022222, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.81, "volume": 312500, "typical_volume": 577165.0, "trend": 1.015333, "fair_value": 1.271218, "relative_strength": -27.496707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.374, 0.382182, 0.412381, 0.429505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.45, "volume": 524200, "typical_volume": 150440.0, "trend": 0.443333, "fair_value": 0.813718, "relative_strength": -33.836435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.724208, "energy": 21.662745, "activity_lines": [ 0.398667, 0.392727, 0.413571, 0.42972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.46, "volume": 253300, "typical_volume": 151140.0, "trend": 0.443333, "fair_value": 0.811218, "relative_strength": -31.735401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.380332, "energy": 14.254159, "activity_lines": [ 0.422, 0.404727, 0.415952, 0.430796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.45, "volume": 66800, "typical_volume": 152755.0, "trend": 0.445, "fair_value": 0.808782, "relative_strength": -32.112662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.154668, "energy": 18.74412, "activity_lines": [ 0.436, 0.414, 0.417571, 0.431226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.45, "volume": 55500, "typical_volume": 150875.0, "trend": 0.446, "fair_value": 0.806474, "relative_strength": -29.940329, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.463793, "energy": 26.038012, "activity_lines": [ 0.446, 0.422727, 0.419333, 0.431548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.44, "volume": 337900, "typical_volume": 150590.0, "trend": 0.445333, "fair_value": 0.804103, "relative_strength": -29.599899, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.463879, "energy": 24.609167, "activity_lines": [ 0.448, 0.428727, 0.420238, 0.431161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }