{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b52c40c0-23a3-409a-913a-75d4edd8cf42", "symbol": "VTEX", "name": "VTEX", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.687, "architecture_energy": 40.198, "architecture_maturity": 15.3, "architecture_confidence": 74.859, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.4, "rotation_up": 60.56, "upward_expansion": 81.26, "deceleration": 50.47, "rotation_down": 14.62, "downward_expansion": 5.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.153333, 4.074909, 3.953095, 3.885226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.18, "trend_reference": 3.744667, "distance_from_trend": 0.116254, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.644487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.259454, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.245736, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.33121, "excess_performance": 0.205585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116254, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011799, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.259454, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085775, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.221506, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.33121, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.242566, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4961126, "relative_activity": 0.776955, "balance": 1.242566, "dry_up": 0.712656, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103416, "annualized_volatility": 0.404761, "from_high_reference": -0.148676, "from_low_reference": 0.471106 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.744667, "fair_value_reference": 5.644487, "structural_low": 2.8414, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.017778, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.063134, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.203922, "worst_return": -0.203526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016783, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.080038, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.059259, "worst_return": -0.325688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007045, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.136541, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.536723, "worst_return": -0.444954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.231618, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.494953, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.801325, "worst_return": -0.366972, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058074, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0078, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058104, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", 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3.881381, 3.803957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.9, "volume": 4022634, "typical_volume": 6687724.4, "trend": 3.704667, "fair_value": 5.657308, "relative_strength": -8.099425, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.353265, "energy": 50.696764, "activity_lines": [ 4.053333, 3.946727, 3.884143, 3.816968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.31, "volume": 5248071, "typical_volume": 6503948.95, "trend": 3.727333, "fair_value": 5.65141, "relative_strength": 1.702445, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.90459, "energy": 51.40702, "activity_lines": [ 4.134, 4.029273, 3.926048, 3.856022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.18, "volume": 4961126, "typical_volume": 6385347.65, "trend": 3.744667, "fair_value": 5.644487, "relative_strength": -4.245736, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.687212, "energy": 40.197609, "activity_lines": [ 4.153333, 4.074909, 3.953095, 3.885226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }