{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b532c227-cde0-4c8f-9704-782bd76c7000", "symbol": "LIGR", "name": "Lightning Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.727, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.066, "architecture_energy": 20.61, "architecture_maturity": 25.109, "architecture_confidence": 44.73, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.98, "rotation_up": 36.59, "upward_expansion": 60.47, "deceleration": 65.49, "rotation_down": 20.68, "downward_expansion": 12.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.803457, 0.817471, 0.761848, 0.733861 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.74, "trend_reference": 0.72094, "distance_from_trend": 0.026437, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.916078, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192209, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.680001, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045161, "excess_performance": -0.106656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026437, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192209, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138557, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077295, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045161, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.713552, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 210594, "relative_activity": 3.857047, "balance": 0.713552, "dry_up": 1.847131, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.267584, "annualized_volatility": 1.221589, "from_high_reference": -0.435115, "from_low_reference": 0.753555 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.72094, "fair_value_reference": 0.916078, "structural_low": 0.422, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031391, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025078, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.126126, "worst_return": -0.278261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.155738, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041811, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.06087, "worst_return": -0.26087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.254348, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.157862, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.104348, "worst_return": -0.404348, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115646, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.366667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.292929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.177215, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.361538, 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"volume": 31933, "typical_volume": 48533.2, "trend": 0.7123, "fair_value": 0.9465, "relative_strength": -3.388254, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.058395, "energy": 39.109709, "activity_lines": [ 0.837267, 0.766164, 0.710233, 0.705944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.96, "volume": 40577, "typical_volume": 42821.6, "trend": 0.719633, "fair_value": 0.939449, "relative_strength": 15.569067, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.357328, "energy": 67.574127, "activity_lines": [ 0.891, 0.808455, 0.737143, 0.721925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.835, "volume": 39207, "typical_volume": 42774.15, "trend": 0.723467, "fair_value": 0.93134, "relative_strength": -0.690323, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.470501, "energy": 49.90351, "activity_lines": [ 0.871333, 0.823018, 0.750862, 0.729368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.779213, "volume": 113034, "typical_volume": 44149.5, "trend": 0.726107, "fair_value": 0.923258, "relative_strength": -8.005777, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.137764, "energy": 30.506335, "activity_lines": [ 0.839738, 0.824348, 0.758577, 0.732964 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.74, "volume": 210594, "typical_volume": 54599.8, "trend": 0.72094, "fair_value": 0.916078, "relative_strength": -13.680001, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.065754, "energy": 20.610252, "activity_lines": [ 0.803457, 0.817471, 0.761848, 0.733861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }