{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b533caf8-fc07-41af-81c7-90ec8e0fecde", "symbol": "STN", "name": "Saturn Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.522, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.286, "architecture_energy": 55.369, "architecture_maturity": 12.375, "architecture_confidence": 87.084, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.6, "rotation_up": 11.4, "upward_expansion": 11.35, "deceleration": 39.08, "rotation_down": 64.2, "downward_expansion": 84.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.443333, 0.458364, 0.486833, 0.492624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.46, "trend_reference": 0.499833, "distance_from_trend": -0.079693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.319936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.437788, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.51577, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010989, "excess_performance": -0.052717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015753, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.437788, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.349251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010989, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.021982, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17227438, "relative_activity": 2.896996, "balance": 1.021982, "dry_up": 1.296576, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14214, "annualized_volatility": 0.779968, "from_high_reference": -0.342857, "from_low_reference": 0.260274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.499833, "fair_value_reference": 0.319936, "structural_low": 0.365, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.019481, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035301, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.223683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.046058, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056688, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.09375, "worst_return": -0.302326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.171296, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.116283, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.383266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.694915, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151515, "active": false }, { 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.423185, "energy": 21.88423, "activity_lines": [ 0.486333, 0.506455, 0.510905, 0.509688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.42, "volume": 4124046, "typical_volume": 6216156.95, "trend": 0.504667, "fair_value": 0.314712, "relative_strength": -16.646045, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.399603, "energy": 55.948628, "activity_lines": [ 0.464333, 0.488636, 0.502286, 0.504065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.45, "volume": 3112695, "typical_volume": 5953183.25, "trend": 0.5025, "fair_value": 0.316474, "relative_strength": -10.546325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.392312, "energy": 53.059404, "activity_lines": [ 0.456333, 0.478182, 0.4975, 0.500538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.42, "volume": 6376985, "typical_volume": 5949579.5, "trend": 0.500167, "fair_value": 0.318045, "relative_strength": -18.428534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.963002, "energy": 62.039819, "activity_lines": [ 0.441667, 0.463455, 0.490143, 0.495215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.46, "volume": 17227438, "typical_volume": 5946656.45, "trend": 0.499833, "fair_value": 0.319936, "relative_strength": -13.51577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.286458, "energy": 55.368937, "activity_lines": [ 0.443333, 0.458364, 0.486833, 0.492624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }