{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b546482b-c0b2-48b3-b57b-81ca2d16e710", "symbol": "AGEN", "name": "Agenus Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 3, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 78.354, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 96.0, "composite_score": 82.596, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.946, "architecture_energy": 89.989, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.339, "architecture_age_weeks": 1, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.946, "energy": 89.989, "maturity": 22.0, "confidence": 77.339, "confirmation": 99.962, "age_weeks": 1, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": true, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.57, "rotation_up": 82.47, "upward_expansion": 92.74, "deceleration": 44.68, "rotation_down": 10.73, "downward_expansion": 21.74 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 5.776, "10": 4.732727, "20": 4.183952, "30": 3.94929 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 2.416447, "10": 1.369937, "20": 0.685313, "30": 0.49157 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 1.731491, "fan_width_change_4": 1.39251, "fan_width_percentile": 0.817308, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.12583, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 1.304751, "price_acceptance": 0.5, "current_fan_distance_atr": 1.634135, "accepted_above": 0.666667, "accepted_below": 0.166667, "crossing_density": 0.375 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 78/100." }, "latest_close": 7.5, "sma_30": 3.682, "distance_from_sma_30": 1.036936, "sma_30_slope": 0.024295, "fair_value": 7.703705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026442, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.591828, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 78.312596, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 94.135758, "range_position_52": 0.799666, "returns": { "13": 0.953125, "26": 1.640845, "52": 0.399254 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 1.555524, "52": 0.184419 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 40.52, "2": 100.0, "3": 46.25, "4": 0.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 1.036936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.024295, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026442, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.591828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.783126, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.941358, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.640845, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.305896, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10453621, "ratio_20": 0.736549, "up_down_ratio_13": 10.305896, "dry_up_ratio": 3.836194, "accumulation_weeks": 1, "distribution_weeks": 0 }, "base": { "high_26": 8.7, "low_26": 2.71, "depth": 0.688506, "compression": 0.976628, "breakout_distance": -0.137931 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.140666, "annualized_volatility": 0.959291, "drawdown_from_52_high": 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72.224178, "activity_5": 4.666667, "activity_10": 4.041818, "activity_20": 3.824048, "activity_30": 3.693785 }, { "week": "2026-07-31", "open": 5.99, "high": 7.99, "low": 5.87, "close": 7.5, "volume": 10453621, "sma_30": 3.682, "fair_value_history": 7.703705, "mansfield_rs": 78.312596, "stage": 1, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.946472, "architecture_energy": 89.989024, "activity_5": 5.776, "activity_10": 4.732727, "activity_20": 4.183952, "activity_30": 3.94929 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.04388, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.113705, "stage_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.502128, "worst_return": -0.588599, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.129259, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.223567, "stage_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.33046, "worst_return": -0.574156, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.175115, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.281464, "stage_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.247126, "worst_return": -0.754772, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.383336, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.530265, "stage_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.185864, "worst_return": -0.71953, "sufficient": false } ], "stage_ledger": [ { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2022-09-30", "end": "2022-09-30", "weeks": 1, "return": 0.0 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2022-10-07", "end": "2023-02-10", "weeks": 19, "return": -0.171642 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2024-05-17", "weeks": 66, "return": -0.747344 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-19", "weeks": 9, "return": -0.560206 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-05-09", "weeks": 42, "return": -0.556402 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-31", "weeks": 25, "return": 0.140805 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-07", "weeks": 1, "return": 0.0 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "weeks": 4, "return": -0.09447 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-04-03", "weeks": 17, "return": -0.121372 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "weeks": 5, "return": -0.035354 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "weeks": 9, "return": -0.064246 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 3, "return": 0.497006, "active": true } ], "architecture_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.097917, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.087956, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.502128, "worst_return": -0.320113, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.016312, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014184, "worst_return": -0.046809, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.331738, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.444732, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.193617, "worst_return": -0.469858, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.408688, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.489616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.297872, "worst_return": -0.519504, "sufficient": false } ], "architecture_ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2024-05-31", "weeks": 42, "return": -0.466327, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-12", 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"end": "2025-08-08", "weeks": 9, "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "weeks": 11, "return": -0.105832, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-27", "weeks": 22, "return": -0.146096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "weeks": 3, "return": 0.438438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "weeks": 3, "return": -0.020513, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "weeks": 11, "return": 0.670391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 1, "return": 0.0, "active": true } ] } }