{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b546b20b-42af-484b-9e12-e73a1a106616", "symbol": "KSM-F125", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4A) Composite Euro Equity Monthly Euro Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.745, "architecture_energy": 62.93, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.837, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.76, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.27, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 252.506667, 249.794545, 6411.14619, 10847.210108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 258.0, "trend_reference": 15919.34, "distance_from_trend": -0.983793, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18622.116667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986146, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.786106, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989155, "excess_performance": -1.030442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.319725, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986146, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.192997, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.779802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989155, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.121367, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66, "relative_activity": 0.15444, "balance": 1.121367, "dry_up": 0.493155, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.694395, "annualized_volatility": 6.355829, "from_high_reference": -0.989478, "from_low_reference": 0.070984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15919.34, "fair_value_reference": 18622.116667, "structural_low": 240.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00429, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.007635, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.087544, "worst_return": -0.079425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034588, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.009415, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142214, "worst_return": -0.090343, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.099315, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014694, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.239382, "worst_return": -0.08349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -98.891782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.99136, "energy": 84.427082, "activity_lines": [ 246.94, 2839.018182, 10407.438095, 14176.898925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 247.9, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 517.5, "trend": 17461.983333, "fair_value": 18831.727564, "relative_strength": -98.886505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.622741, "energy": 67.526567, "activity_lines": [ 247.58, 1538.970909, 8960.611429, 13017.835269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 252.7, "volume": 320, "typical_volume": 497.45, "trend": 16693.406667, "fair_value": 18726.167949, "relative_strength": -98.837359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.202703, "energy": 66.849059, "activity_lines": [ 249.353333, 679.652727, 7629.823333, 11907.558925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 258.0, "volume": 66, "typical_volume": 427.35, "trend": 15919.34, "fair_value": 18622.116667, "relative_strength": -98.786106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.744692, "energy": 62.929505, "activity_lines": [ 252.506667, 249.794545, 6411.14619, 10847.210108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }