{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b548688a-6c88-4be1-9db7-5d97fc9675ca", "symbol": "ROG", "name": "Rogers Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.717, "architecture_energy": 19.226, "architecture_maturity": 63.395, "architecture_confidence": 72.568, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.9, "rotation_up": 16.14, "upward_expansion": 41.26, "deceleration": 87.64, "rotation_down": 40.59, "downward_expansion": 32.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 130.693333, 137.125455, 138.312286, 132.57714 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 134.49, "trend_reference": 123.907, "distance_from_trend": 0.085411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 105.271282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.773375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.269612, "excess_performance": 0.143987, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085411, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167033, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.127734, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285572, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.269612, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1161790, "relative_activity": 0.88652, "balance": 0.486619, "dry_up": 0.985532, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112139, "annualized_volatility": 0.398553, "from_high_reference": -0.204201, "from_low_reference": 0.93205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.907, "fair_value_reference": 105.271282, "structural_low": 97.06, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009138, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.039232, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.202415, "worst_return": -0.068309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121673, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.195617, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.468307, "worst_return": -0.172233, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.113343, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.091363, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.688581, "worst_return": -0.1803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028969, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.360899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083061, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020428, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052643, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029076, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 136.61, "volume": 627382, "typical_volume": 649147.95, "trend": 156.327333, "fair_value": 194.997436, "relative_strength": -23.578198, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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121.565, "fair_value": 105.543846, "relative_strength": 16.396065, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.147811, "energy": 24.820687, "activity_lines": [ 136.22, 142.118545, 138.943667, 131.688108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.47, "volume": 1640893, "typical_volume": 1308781.1, "trend": 122.615, "fair_value": 105.363077, "relative_strength": 8.010113, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.422171, "energy": 21.049789, "activity_lines": [ 130.384667, 138.514182, 138.15319, 131.811011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 134.49, "volume": 1161790, "typical_volume": 1310506.9, "trend": 123.907, "fair_value": 105.271282, "relative_strength": 12.773375, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.716796, "energy": 19.226447, "activity_lines": [ 130.693333, 137.125455, 138.312286, 132.57714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }