{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5492850-95f3-485e-aa1c-a817f96bf641", "symbol": "GSM", "name": "Ferroglobe PLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 93.151, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.323, "architecture_energy": 15.784, "architecture_maturity": 63.583, "architecture_confidence": 86.631, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.77, "rotation_up": 28.75, "upward_expansion": 17.02, "deceleration": 43.77, "rotation_down": 28.26, "downward_expansion": 64.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.681333, 3.578446, 3.775229, 3.956052 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.49, "trend_reference": 4.238486, "distance_from_trend": 0.05934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.49889, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001976, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.913263, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126437, "excess_performance": -0.313891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05934, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11276, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132239, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126437, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.058543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16851166, "relative_activity": 2.289423, "balance": 1.058543, "dry_up": 1.159921, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109517, "annualized_volatility": 0.742888, "from_high_reference": -0.212367, "from_low_reference": 0.457792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.238486, "fair_value_reference": 4.49889, "structural_low": 3.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.02957, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": 0.03434, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.373089, "worst_return": -0.262267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.030327, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.00186, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.442857, "worst_return": -0.192833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.093864, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.170087, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.192322, "worst_return": -0.230894, "sufficient": true 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3.346286, 3.580711, 3.86086, 4.076122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.36, "volume": 4324054, "typical_volume": 6902427.35, "trend": 4.297587, "fair_value": 4.511128, "relative_strength": -29.410877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.952344, "energy": 70.132192, "activity_lines": [ 3.325333, 3.508678, 3.795942, 4.012747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.18, "volume": 7409572, "typical_volume": 6960223.9, "trend": 4.251184, "fair_value": 4.500188, "relative_strength": -33.095403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.33428, "energy": 58.026886, "activity_lines": [ 3.28, 3.414537, 3.719937, 3.940645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.49, "volume": 16851166, "typical_volume": 7360442.5, "trend": 4.238486, "fair_value": 4.49889, "relative_strength": -9.913263, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.323042, "energy": 15.783637, "activity_lines": [ 3.681333, 3.578446, 3.775229, 3.956052 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }