{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b54af10e-027e-4050-b86b-cea983ac26dc", "symbol": "ALLT", "name": "Allot Communications Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.394, "architecture_energy": 9.332, "architecture_maturity": 26.123, "architecture_confidence": 66.602, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.05, "rotation_up": 16.06, "upward_expansion": 22.24, "deceleration": 64.77, "rotation_down": 39.98, "downward_expansion": 53.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.804667, 7.857909, 7.737643, 7.670828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.82, "trend_reference": 7.929833, "distance_from_trend": -0.013851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.501442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.421445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.099737, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.19877, "excess_performance": -0.386224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013851, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066786, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.421445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113255, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049328, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19877, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.759874, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1087368, "relative_activity": 0.5992, "balance": 0.759874, "dry_up": 0.642181, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121416, "annualized_volatility": 0.798827, "from_high_reference": -0.34396, "from_low_reference": 0.277778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.929833, "fair_value_reference": 5.501442, "structural_low": 6.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033654, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.029146, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.2875, "worst_return": -0.19685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.146248, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.108693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.230556, "worst_return": -0.325782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.425, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.379885, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.483465, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.319685, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.651173, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.319685, "worst_return": -0.319685, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073276, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.225962, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12782, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.746313, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.476809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136891, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.365278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.102616, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128371, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02569, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01735, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072361, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.44, "volume": 175898, "typical_volume": 418359.85, "trend": 2.896, "fair_value": 9.041769, "relative_strength": -37.374238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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7.713091, 7.480857, 7.740624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.48, "volume": 1345483, "typical_volume": 2384520.15, "trend": 8.181833, "fair_value": 5.365801, "relative_strength": -14.843428, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.573196, "energy": 15.887036, "activity_lines": [ 8.085333, 7.862091, 7.586262, 7.756892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.05, "volume": 1724173, "typical_volume": 2050439.95, "trend": 8.152833, "fair_value": 5.401058, "relative_strength": -15.320552, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.7967, "energy": 21.121316, "activity_lines": [ 8.150667, 7.917273, 7.659095, 7.748387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.65, "volume": 998745, "typical_volume": 1940110.5, "trend": 8.098833, "fair_value": 5.434006, "relative_strength": -17.913594, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.138421, "energy": 15.442236, "activity_lines": [ 8.037333, 7.895364, 7.68569, 7.715946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.61, "volume": 851177, "typical_volume": 1855726.95, "trend": 8.0305, "fair_value": 5.466891, "relative_strength": -18.537735, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.693109, "energy": 6.788091, "activity_lines": [ 7.879333, 7.856727, 7.704429, 7.684409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.82, "volume": 1087368, "typical_volume": 1814700.15, "trend": 7.929833, "fair_value": 5.501442, "relative_strength": -20.099737, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.393859, "energy": 9.332336, "activity_lines": [ 7.804667, 7.857909, 7.737643, 7.670828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }