{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b54ffc28-e2ec-4cce-a73a-b55f81f30177", "symbol": "XSCS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Consumer Staples UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.756, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.948, "architecture_energy": 3.358, "architecture_maturity": 19.736, "architecture_confidence": 47.901, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.45, "rotation_up": 26.01, "upward_expansion": 28.17, "deceleration": 59.48, "rotation_down": 39.28, "downward_expansion": 26.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3750.133333, 3758.172727, 3755.004762, 3755.369375 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3734.5, "trend_reference": 3752.850985, "distance_from_trend": -0.00489, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3516.608859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061961, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.259098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03305, "excess_performance": -0.084285, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025777, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061961, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516409, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14403, "relative_activity": 1.00909, "balance": 0.516409, "dry_up": 0.900741, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035042, "annualized_volatility": 0.161781, "from_high_reference": -0.063714, "from_low_reference": 0.103841 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3752.850985, "fair_value_reference": 3516.608859, "structural_low": 3576.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.012924, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.022799, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.059302, "worst_return": -0.034904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003066, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.113153, "worst_return": -0.044103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023133, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.024988, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.103544, 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"2026-08-07", "close": 3734.5, "volume": 14403, "typical_volume": 14273.25, "trend": 3752.850985, "fair_value": 3516.608859, "relative_strength": -5.259098, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.947523, "energy": 3.358296, "activity_lines": [ 3750.133333, 3758.172727, 3755.004762, 3755.369375 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }