{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b54ffd72-2d9d-486b-b31b-1b1f1c5c8a0c", "symbol": "RP", "name": "Raja Ferry Port Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.298, "architecture_energy": 42.593, "architecture_maturity": 27.422, "architecture_confidence": 80.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.42, "rotation_up": 58.84, "upward_expansion": 81.85, "deceleration": 50.67, "rotation_down": 17.36, "downward_expansion": 6.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.721333, 0.699273, 0.659905, 0.631978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.74, "trend_reference": 0.607667, "distance_from_trend": 0.217773, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.022564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276329, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.854003, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.254237, "excess_performance": 0.061912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.217773, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020717, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.278139, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.356917, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.254237, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.649154, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8320000, "relative_activity": 3.826299, "balance": 5.649154, "dry_up": 2.330317, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160083, "annualized_volatility": 0.693168, "from_high_reference": -0.244898, "from_low_reference": 0.681818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.607667, "fair_value_reference": 1.022564, "structural_low": 0.44, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.01747, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.104478, "worst_return": -0.236111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.165127, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.159091, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.118056, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.167602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027778, "worst_return": -0.263889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.102941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114754, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.281818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.19697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104478, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.17, "volume": 607500, "typical_volume": 398090.0, "trend": 1.861, "fair_value": 2.036603, "relative_strength": -40.386066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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-19.28831, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.435076, "energy": 31.988269, "activity_lines": [ 0.668, 0.662727, 0.620333, 0.605699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.75, "volume": 11070900, "typical_volume": 1757005.0, "trend": 0.601, "fair_value": 1.030897, "relative_strength": -7.857528, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.927607, "energy": 43.834524, "activity_lines": [ 0.694667, 0.679636, 0.635571, 0.615548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.72, "volume": 603600, "typical_volume": 1775405.0, "trend": 0.604333, "fair_value": 1.026795, "relative_strength": -9.065421, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.983031, "energy": 40.60853, "activity_lines": [ 0.706667, 0.687091, 0.647238, 0.623226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.74, "volume": 8320000, "typical_volume": 2174425.0, "trend": 0.607667, "fair_value": 1.022564, "relative_strength": -4.854003, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.298091, "energy": 42.593255, "activity_lines": [ 0.721333, 0.699273, 0.659905, 0.631978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }