{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5503368-cfc2-435c-9274-78a1869e45ba", "symbol": "AFYA", "name": "Afya Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.856, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.877, "architecture_energy": 15.482, "architecture_maturity": 31.1, "architecture_confidence": 47.997, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.58, "rotation_up": 20.1, "upward_expansion": 15.77, "deceleration": 61.64, "rotation_down": 50.52, "downward_expansion": 38.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.030667, 14.234364, 14.265571, 14.237162 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.9, "trend_reference": 14.156772, "distance_from_trend": -0.018138, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.857632, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12345, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.755734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060175, "excess_performance": -0.247628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018138, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003607, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12345, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006026, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147557, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069377, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.323837, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 473048, "relative_activity": 1.002251, "balance": 1.323837, "dry_up": 0.88184, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06436, "annualized_volatility": 0.306352, "from_high_reference": -0.139851, "from_low_reference": 0.1155 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.156772, "fair_value_reference": 15.857632, "structural_low": 12.460777, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.052452, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.034331, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.138199, "worst_return": -0.189169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022612, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.177346, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.243012, "worst_return": -0.371094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02046, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.114246, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.125858, "worst_return": -0.066441, 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14.38, "volume": 586454, "typical_volume": 488957.9, "trend": 14.192172, "fair_value": 15.876453, "relative_strength": -13.495504, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.350762, "energy": 39.873988, "activity_lines": [ 14.655333, 14.461636, 14.389507, 14.286351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.9, "volume": 429567, "typical_volume": 487175.3, "trend": 14.190304, "fair_value": 15.869229, "relative_strength": -12.313739, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.86744, "energy": 23.048713, "activity_lines": [ 14.442667, 14.388182, 14.355551, 14.267501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.9, "volume": 451763, "typical_volume": 482914.05, "trend": 14.175974, "fair_value": 15.863218, "relative_strength": -10.569542, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.405449, "energy": 3.715801, "activity_lines": [ 14.243333, 14.315273, 14.317479, 14.248772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.27, "volume": 310485, "typical_volume": 479524.05, "trend": 14.173977, "fair_value": 15.861216, "relative_strength": -8.45676, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.178627, "energy": 12.606319, "activity_lines": [ 14.178667, 14.310909, 14.311718, 14.254838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.9, "volume": 473048, "typical_volume": 471985.65, "trend": 14.156772, "fair_value": 15.857632, "relative_strength": -14.755734, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.876718, "energy": 15.481762, "activity_lines": [ 14.030667, 14.234364, 14.265571, 14.237162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }