{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b552e307-a567-43cc-b089-ade45c50b676", "symbol": "VOLCAR-B", "name": "Volvo Car AB (publ.)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.548, "architecture_energy": 41.884, "architecture_maturity": 49.288, "architecture_confidence": 91.97, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.49, "rotation_up": 18.19, "upward_expansion": 4.87, "deceleration": 51.74, "rotation_down": 51.94, "downward_expansion": 73.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.625667, 19.877636, 20.763809, 21.375032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.799999, "trend_reference": 22.771333, "distance_from_trend": -0.130486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.469577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.279203, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.182007, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130053, "excess_performance": -0.191547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149752, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.279203, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028316, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129931, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.613985, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22868368, "relative_activity": 1.50142, "balance": 0.613985, "dry_up": 1.676961, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09897, "annualized_volatility": 0.460453, "from_high_reference": -0.458128, "from_low_reference": 0.080491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.771333, "fair_value_reference": 27.469577, "structural_low": 18.440001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.009865, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.027977, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.496124, "worst_return": -0.218182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004512, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.087926, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.537342, "worst_return": -0.25206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.081359, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.111497, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.498545, "worst_return": -0.244455, "sufficient": true }, { 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14240207.8, "trend": 23.9785, "fair_value": 28.059289, "relative_strength": -28.706541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.313682, "energy": 51.008281, "activity_lines": [ 19.987333, 20.616273, 21.315548, 22.155021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.735001, "volume": 26271686, "typical_volume": 14469341.85, "trend": 23.613, "fair_value": 27.845154, "relative_strength": -30.053162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.12043, "energy": 46.27027, "activity_lines": [ 19.591334, 20.156182, 21.037095, 21.816731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.16, "volume": 23935135, "typical_volume": 14853130.15, "trend": 23.193333, "fair_value": 27.654064, "relative_strength": -25.659274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.064416, "energy": 42.766403, "activity_lines": [ 19.720667, 20.022909, 20.912429, 21.593957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 22868368, "typical_volume": 15231157.25, "trend": 22.771333, "fair_value": 27.469577, "relative_strength": -28.182007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.548368, "energy": 41.883802, "activity_lines": [ 19.625667, 19.877636, 20.763809, 21.375032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }