{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b553c5de-b880-4edd-a42a-a000db79ef94", "symbol": "EBS", "name": "Erste Group Bank AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.578, "architecture_energy": 52.108, "architecture_maturity": 61.834, "architecture_confidence": 56.24, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.17, "rotation_up": 49.08, "upward_expansion": 74.6, "deceleration": 70.85, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 12.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 115.886666, 115.461817, 110.536353, 107.177166 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 120.0, "trend_reference": 104.416615, "distance_from_trend": 0.149242, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.237178, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.868077, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.660654, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.129778, "excess_performance": -0.044469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.149242, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062015, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.868077, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146966, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006607, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055203, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129778, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.289539, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1654777, "relative_activity": 1.150736, "balance": 1.289539, "dry_up": 1.034907, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048846, "annualized_volatility": 0.335788, "from_high_reference": -0.03537, "from_low_reference": 0.49983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.416615, "fair_value_reference": 64.237178, "structural_low": 85.419137, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.037383, "positive_rate": 0.697674, "directional_follow_through": 0.697674, "median_excess_return": 0.0091, "regime_survival": 0.860465, "best_return": 0.163373, "worst_return": -0.358111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.083537, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.057466, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.275491, "worst_return": -0.269002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.244765, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.162515, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.382082, "worst_return": -0.39298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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63.75227, "energy": 62.307362, "activity_lines": [ 115.146664, 113.659998, 108.186061, 105.520446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 113.0, "volume": 1484174, "typical_volume": 1486734.0, "trend": 103.824777, "fair_value": 63.660945, "relative_strength": -2.353314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.408741, "energy": 47.662237, "activity_lines": [ 114.259998, 114.05818, 109.080779, 106.133603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.0, "volume": 1654777, "typical_volume": 1438015.65, "trend": 104.416615, "fair_value": 64.237178, "relative_strength": 0.660654, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.577835, "energy": 52.107777, "activity_lines": [ 115.886666, 115.461817, 110.536353, 107.177166 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }