{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b557076e-e2b1-493a-ac21-955e8b955ffc", "symbol": "600699", "name": "Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.843, "architecture_energy": 63.48, "architecture_maturity": 28.493, "architecture_confidence": 84.514, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.11, "rotation_up": 13.69, "upward_expansion": 12.81, "deceleration": 41.99, "rotation_down": 64.27, "downward_expansion": 83.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.501334, 21.272728, 23.55108, 24.49544 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.200001, "trend_reference": 25.89028, "distance_from_trend": -0.18116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.878651, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066471, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.96067, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.237068, "excess_performance": -0.193865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073411, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.462613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280634, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237068, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.392965, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147418997, "relative_activity": 0.763521, "balance": 1.392965, "dry_up": 0.715254, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12798, "annualized_volatility": 0.478019, "from_high_reference": -0.466062, "from_low_reference": 0.190565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.89028, "fair_value_reference": 19.878651, "structural_low": 19.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.022743, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.008528, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.299759, "worst_return": -0.194508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058501, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.032012, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.569827, "worst_return": -0.300362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.13781, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.102111, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.300721, "worst_return": -0.087693, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.040424, "energy": 78.502221, "activity_lines": [ 21.561333, 23.121202, 24.961579, 25.698211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.190001, "volume": 133536495, "typical_volume": 189649584.3, "trend": 26.53417, "fair_value": 19.851207, "relative_strength": -25.023273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.539236, "energy": 80.236999, "activity_lines": [ 20.573334, 22.104133, 24.352998, 25.202274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.6, "volume": 131115093, "typical_volume": 190501537.45, "trend": 26.221756, "fair_value": 19.860198, "relative_strength": -19.964755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.150823, "energy": 73.159644, "activity_lines": [ 20.420667, 21.542903, 23.912361, 24.819424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.200001, "volume": 147418997, "typical_volume": 193077965.5, "trend": 25.89028, "fair_value": 19.878651, "relative_strength": -19.96067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.843005, "energy": 63.480293, "activity_lines": [ 20.501334, 21.272728, 23.55108, 24.49544 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }