{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b55a7479-dc05-4170-81c4-607dec2dc89a", "symbol": "00753L", "name": "CTBC China 50 2X", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.917, "architecture_energy": 23.528, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.905, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.76, "rotation_up": 35.08, "upward_expansion": 22.15, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 21.54, "downward_expansion": 56.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.562667, 9.226727, 9.477048, 9.865462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.95, "trend_reference": 10.564667, "distance_from_trend": -0.058181, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.560962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.820628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25188, "excess_performance": -0.631192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058181, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102153, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04069, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.388206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.4e-05, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25188, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.656005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60290839, "relative_activity": 0.949129, "balance": 0.656005, "dry_up": 1.208567, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072671, "annualized_volatility": 0.369276, "from_high_reference": -0.327248, "from_low_reference": 0.267516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.564667, "fair_value_reference": 9.560962, "structural_low": 7.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.077246, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.062917, "regime_survival": 0.911765, "best_return": 0.246597, "worst_return": -0.214754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.149508, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.219825, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.408404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.247084, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.153678, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.152113, "worst_return": -0.396753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.198265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084494, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.240069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", 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-59.505736, "energy": 48.787907, "activity_lines": [ 8.895333, 8.950182, 9.466571, 9.969828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.83, "volume": 81206440, "typical_volume": 64762993.3, "trend": 10.656667, "fair_value": 9.565, "relative_strength": -38.749816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.877985, "energy": 26.706781, "activity_lines": [ 9.271333, 9.076182, 9.462905, 9.911054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.95, "volume": 60290839, "typical_volume": 63522298.65, "trend": 10.564667, "fair_value": 9.560962, "relative_strength": -38.820628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.91659, "energy": 23.527642, "activity_lines": [ 9.562667, 9.226727, 9.477048, 9.865462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }