{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b55ade9f-ecdd-42ba-a416-0a4e8391f9e7", "symbol": "MVOL", "name": "iShares Edge MSCI World Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.812, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.297, "architecture_energy": 94.942, "architecture_maturity": 17.546, "architecture_confidence": 64.192, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.0, "rotation_up": 88.58, "upward_expansion": 99.52, "deceleration": 39.2, "rotation_down": 8.45, "downward_expansion": 21.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.852, 61.041272, 59.927666, 59.460624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 63.049999, "trend_reference": 58.962667, "distance_from_trend": 0.069321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.427676, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.789975, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082218, "excess_performance": -0.000666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069321, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011852, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091517, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082218, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 227.597464, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10116, "relative_activity": 0.269903, "balance": 227.597464, "dry_up": 0.16873, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015397, "annualized_volatility": 0.077314, "from_high_reference": -0.138689, "from_low_reference": 0.118701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.962667, "fair_value_reference": 57.427676, "structural_low": 56.900002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.006637, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": 0.005941, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.041583, "worst_return": -0.197021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00131, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.02006, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.063094, "worst_return": -0.204261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000919, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002989, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.09179, "worst_return": -0.212457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -5.096553, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.420358, "energy": 89.319127, "activity_lines": [ 61.135333, 60.466, 59.537286, 59.186946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.049999, "volume": 10116, "typical_volume": 37480.1, "trend": 58.962667, "fair_value": 57.427676, "relative_strength": -3.789975, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.297205, "energy": 94.942146, "activity_lines": [ 61.852, 61.041272, 59.927666, 59.460624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }