{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b55b431d-9cc6-4d39-bd62-7f5f15acda3d", "symbol": "TITA-B", "name": "Titania Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.19, "architecture_energy": 21.252, "architecture_maturity": 84.29, "architecture_confidence": 76.762, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.3, "rotation_up": 32.92, "upward_expansion": 21.24, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 25.59, "downward_expansion": 57.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.690667, 7.554182, 7.658476, 7.809763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.76, "trend_reference": 8.094, "distance_from_trend": -0.041265, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.029936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.103851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.595824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105991, "excess_performance": -0.167485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041265, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030349, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.103851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155958, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105991, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.093113, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12508, "relative_activity": 0.286512, "balance": 1.093113, "dry_up": 0.75391, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045995, "annualized_volatility": 0.209803, "from_high_reference": -0.257416, "from_low_reference": 0.092958 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.094, "fair_value_reference": 7.029936, "structural_low": 7.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010904, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000382, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.187166, "worst_return": -0.169772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.121348, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.018707, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.247059, "worst_return": -0.236473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08516, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.046166, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.382766, "worst_return": -0.025391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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7.644364, 7.851524, 8.060559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.32, "volume": 129, "typical_volume": 50813.85, "trend": 8.23, "fair_value": 6.942179, "relative_strength": -21.589377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.102374, "energy": 87.370469, "activity_lines": [ 7.341333, 7.558909, 7.782095, 7.998495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.48, "volume": 36509, "typical_volume": 49569.0, "trend": 8.209333, "fair_value": 6.957821, "relative_strength": -17.50733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.920074, "energy": 84.148615, "activity_lines": [ 7.348, 7.519636, 7.735524, 7.950108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.2, "volume": 13862, "typical_volume": 45600.35, "trend": 8.177333, "fair_value": 6.973333, "relative_strength": -19.228592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.096608, "energy": 83.080921, "activity_lines": [ 7.292, 7.437455, 7.669048, 7.884989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.56, "volume": 43824, "typical_volume": 43787.7, "trend": 8.162667, "fair_value": 6.990513, "relative_strength": -16.078818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.69543, "energy": 48.86027, "activity_lines": [ 7.385333, 7.434182, 7.643429, 7.845161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.0, "volume": 61457, "typical_volume": 45141.9, "trend": 8.146, "fair_value": 7.011154, "relative_strength": -11.856689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.508233, "energy": 19.484621, "activity_lines": [ 7.608, 7.516727, 7.662381, 7.834667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.76, "volume": 12508, "typical_volume": 43656.1, "trend": 8.094, "fair_value": 7.029936, "relative_strength": -15.595824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.189659, "energy": 21.25167, "activity_lines": [ 7.690667, 7.554182, 7.658476, 7.809763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }