{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b55b5ab2-3a0c-4eed-a80b-e066ce486b66", "symbol": "IDGT", "name": "ISHARES TRUST US DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE & REAL ESTATE", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.723, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.521, "architecture_energy": 16.214, "architecture_maturity": 67.163, "architecture_confidence": 78.601, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.29, "rotation_up": 17.1, "upward_expansion": 41.14, "deceleration": 87.73, "rotation_down": 34.6, "downward_expansion": 30.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.886073, 116.51439, 118.260969, 114.848251 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 116.0571, "trend_reference": 108.811263, "distance_from_trend": 0.066591, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.493775, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.441815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.086351, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.314801, "excess_performance": 0.189176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066591, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111505, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.441815, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13583, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050864, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.314801, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.465381, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125375, "relative_activity": 0.468222, "balance": 0.465381, "dry_up": 0.658985, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060744, "annualized_volatility": 0.281045, "from_high_reference": -0.126857, "from_low_reference": 0.444766 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.811263, "fair_value_reference": 80.493775, "structural_low": 88.070294, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.022681, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.005824, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.123871, "worst_return": -0.073215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.061596, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013937, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.099649, "worst_return": -0.138916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.084973, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020634, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162336, "worst_return": 0.01001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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119.870148, 118.380661, 113.366281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.3, "volume": 188665, "typical_volume": 256028.85, "trend": 106.836429, "fair_value": 79.832501, "relative_strength": 8.842572, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.758552, "energy": 23.384711, "activity_lines": [ 115.741333, 118.618003, 118.407385, 113.909764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 113.0889, "volume": 201469, "typical_volume": 263830.0, "trend": 107.76303, "fair_value": 80.152636, "relative_strength": 6.263114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.847459, "energy": 14.908606, "activity_lines": [ 114.5983, 117.191923, 118.227687, 114.313149 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 116.0571, "volume": 125375, "typical_volume": 267768.45, "trend": 108.811263, "fair_value": 80.493775, "relative_strength": 5.086351, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.521117, "energy": 16.213994, "activity_lines": [ 114.886073, 116.51439, 118.260969, 114.848251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }