{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5624a09-fd53-46c8-a671-f080086041d0", "symbol": "600136", "name": "Wuhan MC Culture and Sports Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.999, "architecture_energy": 47.55, "architecture_maturity": 68.452, "architecture_confidence": 85.814, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.49, "rotation_up": 27.16, "upward_expansion": 8.04, "deceleration": 60.35, "rotation_down": 43.17, "downward_expansion": 76.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.402, 1.405091, 1.500381, 1.581226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.42, "trend_reference": 1.662333, "distance_from_trend": -0.145779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.905192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.254668, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.789136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174419, "excess_performance": -0.131215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068895, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.254668, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027719, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.19989, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51923950, "relative_activity": 0.563792, "balance": 0.19989, "dry_up": 0.581761, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08559, "annualized_volatility": 0.482104, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.163934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.662333, "fair_value_reference": 1.905192, "structural_low": 1.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.021429, "positive_rate": 0.342857, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.018275, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.687151, "worst_return": -0.365196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.031513, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.064634, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.488152, "worst_return": -0.637624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.168, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.101964, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.652632, "worst_return": -0.619802, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072464, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105991, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134715, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066351, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.41, "volume": 70398000, "typical_volume": 102081523.7, "trend": 1.703, "fair_value": 1.952372, "relative_strength": -22.13201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.76318, "energy": 83.883423, "activity_lines": [ 1.404, 1.472182, 1.599095, 1.656043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.4, "volume": 72950888, "typical_volume": 99645453.0, "trend": 1.692667, "fair_value": 1.939744, "relative_strength": -17.223809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.060979, "energy": 76.242329, "activity_lines": [ 1.400667, 1.446727, 1.57119, 1.636495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.36, "volume": 50677744, "typical_volume": 95832431.05, "trend": 1.682667, "fair_value": 1.926795, "relative_strength": -19.955927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.06895, "energy": 58.859182, "activity_lines": [ 1.388667, 1.420545, 1.54181, 1.615032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.41, "volume": 38762620, "typical_volume": 93426980.35, "trend": 1.671333, "fair_value": 1.915, "relative_strength": -16.756505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.83837, "energy": 52.347246, "activity_lines": [ 1.398, 1.409455, 1.519667, 1.597441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.42, "volume": 51923950, "typical_volume": 92097676.25, "trend": 1.662333, "fair_value": 1.905192, "relative_strength": -17.789136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.998776, "energy": 47.550164, "activity_lines": [ 1.402, 1.405091, 1.500381, 1.581226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }