{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5635f7f-ab86-47de-b16f-b562677462e1", "symbol": "PJS1", "name": "PIMCO Euro Short Maturity UCITS ETF EUR Income", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.661, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.558, "architecture_energy": 67.95, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.938, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.75, "rotation_up": 72.56, "upward_expansion": 91.65, "deceleration": 41.26, "rotation_down": 14.7, "downward_expansion": 13.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.528325, 97.460234, 97.365464, 97.294226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 97.629997, "trend_reference": 97.205913, "distance_from_trend": 0.004363, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 93.991523, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.774939, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005944, "excess_performance": -0.164948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004363, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002661, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021925, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005944, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.407735, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6656, "relative_activity": 1.616966, "balance": 4.407735, "dry_up": 1.1891, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001987, "annualized_volatility": 0.006838, "from_high_reference": -0.015877, "from_low_reference": 0.023139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.205913, "fair_value_reference": 93.991523, "structural_low": 96.671341, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.002546, "positive_rate": 0.955556, "directional_follow_through": 0.955556, "median_excess_return": -0.008014, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005326, "worst_return": -0.001512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007988, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041156, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.012793, "worst_return": 0.000235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016551, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.080548, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.024725, "worst_return": 0.012404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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4333.5, "trend": 97.104985, "fair_value": 93.757315, "relative_strength": -13.711919, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.237194, "energy": 48.647597, "activity_lines": [ 97.37065, 97.337942, 97.252553, 97.199299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.431999, "volume": 4451, "typical_volume": 4295.0, "trend": 97.130409, "fair_value": 93.816168, "relative_strength": -12.098708, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.140655, "energy": 53.309085, "activity_lines": [ 97.40346, 97.361377, 97.27523, 97.220397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 97.431999, "volume": 2087, "typical_volume": 3974.65, "trend": 97.154614, "fair_value": 93.87432, "relative_strength": -11.588668, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.266431, "energy": 69.94629, "activity_lines": [ 97.420783, 97.380428, 97.296954, 97.239854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.546997, "volume": 6385, "typical_volume": 4120.15, "trend": 97.179621, "fair_value": 93.93286, "relative_strength": -11.690442, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.600857, "energy": 75.982761, "activity_lines": [ 97.467517, 97.415661, 97.328554, 97.265169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.629997, "volume": 6656, "typical_volume": 4116.35, "trend": 97.205913, "fair_value": 93.991523, "relative_strength": -13.774939, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.557987, "energy": 67.950108, "activity_lines": [ 97.528325, 97.460234, 97.365464, 97.294226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }