{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b56361b1-0ef6-48b8-b27b-4211d6a4b116", "symbol": "OAJ", "name": "Fortress Minerals Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.867, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.488, "architecture_energy": 37.779, "architecture_maturity": 12.164, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.67, "rotation_up": 16.84, "upward_expansion": 4.97, "deceleration": 47.06, "rotation_down": 54.75, "downward_expansion": 78.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.236948, 0.239355, 0.242929, 0.243926 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.235, "trend_reference": 0.247902, "distance_from_trend": -0.052045, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.250456, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.150003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145455, "excess_performance": -0.30029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052045, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061712, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177298, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.020125, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61200, "relative_activity": 0.414592, "balance": 0.020125, "dry_up": 0.527385, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043727, "annualized_volatility": 0.360819, "from_high_reference": -0.287879, "from_low_reference": 0.175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.247902, "fair_value_reference": 0.250456, "structural_low": 0.225, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.001361, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.022213, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.155172, "worst_return": -0.194031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.026967, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.239997, "worst_return": -0.169811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.052633, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.014195, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.118423, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.24528, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 149170.0, "trend": 0.250541, "fair_value": 0.251535, "relative_strength": -12.424381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.76303, "energy": 40.900702, "activity_lines": [ 0.240991, 0.243017, 0.245063, 0.246538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.240374, "volume": 203400, "typical_volume": 154635.0, "trend": 0.250553, "fair_value": 0.251177, "relative_strength": -15.220636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.249769, "energy": 46.901424, "activity_lines": [ 0.240035, 0.242154, 0.244688, 0.245882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.235469, "volume": 46500, "typical_volume": 149915.0, "trend": 0.250235, "fair_value": 0.250787, "relative_strength": -17.229618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.636505, "energy": 59.295589, "activity_lines": [ 0.238085, 0.240665, 0.243796, 0.244909 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.235, "volume": 61200, "typical_volume": 147615.0, "trend": 0.247902, "fair_value": 0.250456, "relative_strength": -18.150003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.487776, "energy": 37.779201, "activity_lines": [ 0.236948, 0.239355, 0.242929, 0.243926 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }