{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b56f1c94-24ba-4395-a96e-c6d3f4fc23aa", "symbol": "ALPJT", "name": "Poujoulat SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.526, "architecture_energy": 46.145, "architecture_maturity": 76.133, "architecture_confidence": 65.701, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.38, "rotation_up": 26.72, "upward_expansion": 19.39, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.32, "downward_expansion": 69.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.816, 5.778909, 6.286571, 6.709247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.4, "trend_reference": 7.246, "distance_from_trend": -0.116754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.276179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432432, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.374342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.255814, "excess_performance": -0.309125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432432, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042208, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255814, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26452, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23245, "relative_activity": 1.105996, "balance": 0.26452, "dry_up": 2.007613, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089183, "annualized_volatility": 0.37841, "from_high_reference": -0.302832, "from_low_reference": 0.230769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.246, "fair_value_reference": 11.276179, "structural_low": 5.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.010728, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.023704, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.21875, "worst_return": -0.22963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.062945, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.083372, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.034483, "worst_return": -0.304734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.191851, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.21311, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": -0.092783, "worst_return": -0.269638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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18391.5, "trend": 7.449333, "fair_value": 11.637255, "relative_strength": -32.044206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.498114, "energy": 91.320019, "activity_lines": [ 5.481333, 5.920727, 6.596476, 7.00129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.68, "volume": 41941, "typical_volume": 19724.85, "trend": 7.372, "fair_value": 11.517537, "relative_strength": -27.699854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.08227, "energy": 84.55531, "activity_lines": [ 5.501333, 5.810545, 6.465238, 6.88714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.52, "volume": 34452, "typical_volume": 20438.85, "trend": 7.305333, "fair_value": 11.394956, "relative_strength": -30.194847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.792595, "energy": 65.186562, "activity_lines": [ 5.509333, 5.701818, 6.328095, 6.767656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.4, "volume": 23245, "typical_volume": 21017.25, "trend": 7.246, "fair_value": 11.276179, "relative_strength": -20.374342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.525783, "energy": 46.144599, "activity_lines": [ 5.816, 5.778909, 6.286571, 6.709247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }