{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b57c4111-2473-4c32-8ed8-15a35a246d0a", "symbol": "UBSG34", "name": "UBS Group AG", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.864, "architecture_energy": 70.422, "architecture_maturity": 39.351, "architecture_confidence": 94.735, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.89, "rotation_up": 65.08, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 59.58, "rotation_down": 25.4, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.980665, 66.107362, 62.901722, 60.201946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 68.199997, "trend_reference": 58.047637, "distance_from_trend": 0.174897, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.972059, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.516497, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.170539, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120764, "excess_performance": 0.177812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174897, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054382, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.516497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193966, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.161705, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.268178, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120764, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.724415, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230, "relative_activity": 0.102416, "balance": 9.724415, "dry_up": 0.28977, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033595, "annualized_volatility": 0.281776, "from_high_reference": -0.026618, "from_low_reference": 0.445603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.047637, "fair_value_reference": 44.972059, "structural_low": 47.177545, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.01043, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.000673, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.115571, "worst_return": -0.257145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014142, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.038363, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194141, "worst_return": -0.239719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.088916, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.057127, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.15786, "worst_return": -0.094184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.586212, "energy": 91.379274, "activity_lines": [ 66.226332, 64.277136, 60.291181, 58.464642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.262497, "volume": 604, "typical_volume": 2263.4, "trend": 57.716036, "fair_value": 44.435662, "relative_strength": 10.230107, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.032328, "energy": 86.158553, "activity_lines": [ 66.114998, 64.756817, 61.098771, 58.954714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.709999, "volume": 1369, "typical_volume": 2268.85, "trend": 57.86186, "fair_value": 44.705991, "relative_strength": 10.184176, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.904254, "energy": 77.750008, "activity_lines": [ 66.401998, 65.36218, 61.974203, 59.53497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.199997, "volume": 230, "typical_volume": 2245.75, "trend": 58.047637, "fair_value": 44.972059, "relative_strength": 16.170539, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.864494, "energy": 70.422173, "activity_lines": [ 66.980665, 66.107362, 62.901722, 60.201946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }