{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5856fa7-7807-4335-b54b-d6a26f89db27", "symbol": "300286", "name": "Acrel Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.351, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.037, "architecture_energy": 70.424, "architecture_maturity": 21.806, "architecture_confidence": 79.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.34, "rotation_up": 9.75, "upward_expansion": 15.56, "deceleration": 38.26, "rotation_down": 71.83, "downward_expansion": 88.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.028, 21.508545, 23.813308, 24.835604 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.82, "trend_reference": 25.946318, "distance_from_trend": -0.197574, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.542652, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076417, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.028049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233513, "excess_performance": -0.240913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001392, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076417, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134237, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19028, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026872, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233513, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.750231, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31645716, "relative_activity": 0.853612, "balance": 2.750231, "dry_up": 0.968432, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168681, "annualized_volatility": 0.672471, "from_high_reference": -0.435772, "from_low_reference": 0.179603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.946318, "fair_value_reference": 22.542652, "structural_low": 17.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.013626, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.014594, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.268068, "worst_return": -0.151562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045568, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.040776, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.839246, "worst_return": -0.363767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100001, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.017006, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.466187, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 40516389.3, "trend": 26.204293, "fair_value": 22.816547, "relative_strength": -26.847973, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.264989, "energy": 81.183136, "activity_lines": [ 21.464, 24.380727, 25.389123, 25.993326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.459999, "volume": 45795707, "typical_volume": 38927670.8, "trend": 26.109553, "fair_value": 22.697284, "relative_strength": -22.241571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.262447, "energy": 80.967003, "activity_lines": [ 20.272666, 23.183273, 24.745508, 25.55821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.1, "volume": 25789591, "typical_volume": 37024371.85, "trend": 26.010842, "fair_value": 22.609385, "relative_strength": -18.09718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.516071, "energy": 78.226846, "activity_lines": [ 19.87, 22.194909, 24.220465, 25.170497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.82, "volume": 31645716, "typical_volume": 37072714.05, "trend": 25.946318, "fair_value": 22.542652, "relative_strength": -19.028049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.03666, "energy": 70.424178, "activity_lines": [ 20.028, 21.508545, 23.813308, 24.835604 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }