{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b59d0a72-69b2-4f08-b17e-0e1d6442efa0", "symbol": "600510", "name": "Black Peony (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.432, "architecture_energy": 72.484, "architecture_maturity": 29.797, "architecture_confidence": 93.011, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 14.41, "upward_expansion": 16.39, "deceleration": 39.64, "rotation_down": 68.03, "downward_expansion": 89.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.404, 6.68774, 7.629882, 8.091451 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.9, "trend_reference": 8.597665, "distance_from_trend": -0.197457, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.055161, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.316745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.28719, "excess_performance": -0.243986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197457, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070221, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.787991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.524287, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28719, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.388208, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52502835, "relative_activity": 0.856907, "balance": 0.388208, "dry_up": 0.862892, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13787, "annualized_volatility": 0.569528, "from_high_reference": -0.409752, "from_low_reference": 0.306818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.597665, "fair_value_reference": 6.055161, "structural_low": 5.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.004674, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.31339, "worst_return": -0.211499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.077586, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049298, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.302857, "worst_return": -0.243441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.092593, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.11252, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.328571, "worst_return": -0.328502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -86.442524, "energy": 85.388289, "activity_lines": [ 6.716693, 7.279555, 8.225548, 8.544096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.98, "volume": 65873908, "typical_volume": 61626170.25, "trend": 8.731998, "fair_value": 6.044818, "relative_strength": -25.723552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.227743, "energy": 87.831133, "activity_lines": [ 6.371398, 6.94192, 7.972738, 8.361085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.3, "volume": 36459726, "typical_volume": 60526192.2, "trend": 8.647332, "fair_value": 6.048681, "relative_strength": -22.208017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.938267, "energy": 83.14951, "activity_lines": [ 6.2538, 6.735921, 7.766453, 8.204182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.9, "volume": 52502835, "typical_volume": 61270162.95, "trend": 8.597665, "fair_value": 6.055161, "relative_strength": -17.316745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.432034, "energy": 72.484035, "activity_lines": [ 6.404, 6.68774, 7.629882, 8.091451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }