{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b59ec756-d611-45f5-8fd9-3d7ebdd98b6e", "symbol": "900924", "name": "Shang Gong Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.654, "architecture_energy": 41.751, "architecture_maturity": 56.535, "architecture_confidence": 89.629, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.09, "rotation_up": 22.16, "upward_expansion": 4.94, "deceleration": 55.06, "rotation_down": 50.46, "downward_expansion": 75.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.3018, 0.304982, 0.305481, 0.317417 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.313, "trend_reference": 0.337133, "distance_from_trend": -0.071584, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.333651, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061895, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.848707, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.180628, "excess_performance": -0.137424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071584, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061895, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028327, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117539, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180628, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670815, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1661117, "relative_activity": 1.323544, "balance": 0.670815, "dry_up": 1.21653, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05505, "annualized_volatility": 0.329338, "from_high_reference": -0.251196, "from_low_reference": 0.129964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.337133, "fair_value_reference": 0.333651, "structural_low": 0.277, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.009097, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.00316, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.107042, "worst_return": -0.14245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.034013, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.001974, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.109653, "worst_return": -0.119061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036096, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004845, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.203704, "worst_return": -0.088042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.313886, 0.329374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.288, "volume": 1520498, "typical_volume": 1253641.9, "trend": 0.3467, "fair_value": 0.333986, "relative_strength": -16.186347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.313336, "energy": 30.232141, "activity_lines": [ 0.306533, 0.304764, 0.310057, 0.325383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.295, "volume": 1349576, "typical_volume": 1254837.65, "trend": 0.343567, "fair_value": 0.333813, "relative_strength": -14.886831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.405759, "energy": 45.245972, "activity_lines": [ 0.301667, 0.303418, 0.307414, 0.322047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.299, "volume": 1576045, "typical_volume": 1246750.0, "trend": 0.3402, "fair_value": 0.33366, "relative_strength": -13.765541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.858731, "energy": 49.784693, "activity_lines": [ 0.298467, 0.302927, 0.30561, 0.319172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.313, "volume": 1661117, "typical_volume": 1255052.65, "trend": 0.337133, "fair_value": 0.333651, "relative_strength": -11.848707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.65381, "energy": 41.750707, "activity_lines": [ 0.3018, 0.304982, 0.305481, 0.317417 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }