{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b59f7474-5781-4c3e-9e55-1b25b55ed233", "symbol": "ALM", "name": "Almirall, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.912, "architecture_energy": 45.13, "architecture_maturity": 31.402, "architecture_confidence": 92.823, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.06, "rotation_up": 19.48, "upward_expansion": 5.49, "deceleration": 50.88, "rotation_down": 54.75, "downward_expansion": 76.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.992, 11.085091, 11.319395, 11.532392 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.84, "trend_reference": 11.860805, "distance_from_trend": -0.086065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.838316, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.187103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.14462, "excess_performance": -0.26905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0368, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101815, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129102, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.488245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 572513, "relative_activity": 1.136799, "balance": 0.488245, "dry_up": 1.385658, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049544, "annualized_volatility": 0.24139, "from_high_reference": -0.211924, "from_low_reference": 0.073811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.860805, "fair_value_reference": 9.838316, "structural_low": 10.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.006149, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": -0.029101, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.151212, "worst_return": -0.157356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.054326, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.034979, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.239783, "worst_return": -0.164437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009978, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048219, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.282175, "worst_return": -0.164659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-17.548393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.648051, "energy": 43.641278, "activity_lines": [ 11.281333, 11.309955, 11.583079, 11.803842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.68, "volume": 709307, "typical_volume": 519397.2, "trend": 12.031271, "fair_value": 9.78688, "relative_strength": -20.544582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.501147, "energy": 61.229585, "activity_lines": [ 11.082667, 11.184727, 11.481908, 11.712209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.2, "volume": 857857, "typical_volume": 513612.25, "trend": 11.984148, "fair_value": 9.805978, "relative_strength": -17.858973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.224761, "energy": 40.484561, "activity_lines": [ 11.101333, 11.173818, 11.43975, 11.658579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.12, "volume": 651694, "typical_volume": 513080.8, "trend": 11.931735, "fair_value": 9.82441, "relative_strength": -18.921469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.136317, "energy": 38.715823, "activity_lines": [ 11.088, 11.150545, 11.39277, 11.602827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.84, "volume": 572513, "typical_volume": 503618.45, "trend": 11.860805, "fair_value": 9.838316, "relative_strength": -22.187103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.911898, "energy": 45.129924, "activity_lines": [ 10.992, 11.085091, 11.319395, 11.532392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }