{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b5a20173-f801-4912-9aa9-009f0d481599",
    "symbol": "FER",
    "name": "Ferrovial N.V.",
    "exchange": "MCE",
    "country": "ES",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^IBEX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -44.45,
    "architecture_energy": 49.991,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.895,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.879,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.69,
        "rotation_up": 9.61,
        "upward_expansion": 18.43,
        "deceleration": 42.96,
        "rotation_down": 64.05,
        "downward_expansion": 75.1
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        56.606667,
        57.467273,
        57.996682,
        57.969034
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 57.360001,
    "trend_reference": 58.008802,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.011185,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 42.359074,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.354137,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.152585,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.034404,
    "excess_performance": -0.158835,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011185,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017102,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.354137,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.136323,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.111526,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.142278,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034404,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.881874,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2777918,
      "relative_activity": 0.746525,
      "balance": 0.881874,
      "dry_up": 0.909211,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.037458,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.239116,
      "from_high_reference": -0.088505,
      "from_low_reference": 0.302734
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 58.008802,
      "fair_value_reference": 42.359074,
      "structural_low": 51.203304,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.041089,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.049701,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.105085,
        "worst_return": -0.002453,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.050147,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008706,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.112553,
        "worst_return": -0.012259,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.144883,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.041397,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.198576,
        "worst_return": 0.09119,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.144129,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.107837,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.144129,
        "worst_return": 0.144129,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-07-28",
        "end": "2023-08-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043046,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-09-01",
        "end": "2023-09-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.044628,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-09-22",
        "end": "2023-09-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.025236,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-10-06",
        "end": "2023-11-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.111029,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.044654,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.086648,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.026475,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.138889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.023634,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.055959,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.23299,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.070692,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.074751,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011283,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 41.635398,
        "relative_strength": -8.911321,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 2785508,
        "typical_volume": 4086814.9,
        "trend": 57.881142,
        "fair_value": 41.811679,
        "relative_strength": -9.641278,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.80283,
        "energy": 8.468272,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 55.700001,
        "volume": 2497399,
        "typical_volume": 3945375.65,
        "trend": 57.908223,
        "fair_value": 41.987094,
        "relative_strength": -11.289309,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.089189,
        "energy": 29.793778,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.872,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 56.720001,
        "volume": 5472354,
        "typical_volume": 3827975.85,
        "trend": 57.971946,
        "fair_value": 42.171694,
        "relative_strength": -10.467582,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -16.716454,
        "energy": 30.382159,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.498667,
          57.613091,
          58.044507,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 57.360001,
        "volume": 2777918,
        "typical_volume": 3721131.35,
        "trend": 58.008802,
        "fair_value": 42.359074,
        "relative_strength": -11.152585,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.450115,
        "energy": 49.991261,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}