{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5aec039-5014-42ab-a52b-1edaa3726cc9", "symbol": "CELEBRITY", "name": "Celebrity Fashions Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.449, "architecture_energy": 61.92, "architecture_maturity": 10.845, "architecture_confidence": 86.744, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.49, "rotation_up": 12.13, "upward_expansion": 15.6, "deceleration": 34.63, "rotation_down": 70.91, "downward_expansion": 88.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.039333, 7.296364, 7.49681, 7.542538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.99, "trend_reference": 7.644, "distance_from_trend": -0.085557, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.693397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.489535, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.492084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.22677, "excess_performance": -0.183061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085557, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068373, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.489535, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204921, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023917, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22677, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.611263, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121906, "relative_activity": 0.875338, "balance": 0.611263, "dry_up": 0.868922, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09409, "annualized_volatility": 0.455419, "from_high_reference": -0.507746, "from_low_reference": 0.237168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.644, "fair_value_reference": 13.693397, "structural_low": 5.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.003472, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.03079, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.473684, "worst_return": -0.186576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025087, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004243, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.611111, "worst_return": -0.257416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014274, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.116262, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.190476, "worst_return": -0.328784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.953718, "energy": 8.045292, "activity_lines": [ 7.847333, 7.825273, 7.721429, 7.759548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.52, "volume": 123105, "typical_volume": 150450.85, "trend": 7.852, "fair_value": 13.855064, "relative_strength": -17.468266, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.028858, "energy": 12.829184, "activity_lines": [ 7.756667, 7.765273, 7.708429, 7.735978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.1, "volume": 95891, "typical_volume": 148672.65, "trend": 7.804667, "fair_value": 13.819808, "relative_strength": -21.381339, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.737952, "energy": 32.116479, "activity_lines": [ 7.533333, 7.638182, 7.656524, 7.687462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.04, "volume": 196066, "typical_volume": 142437.8, "trend": 7.746333, "fair_value": 13.782244, "relative_strength": -19.232223, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.566986, "energy": 45.616314, "activity_lines": [ 7.322, 7.519091, 7.603333, 7.638129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.95, "volume": 70187, "typical_volume": 138686.35, "trend": 7.675333, "fair_value": 13.741538, "relative_strength": -21.295394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.296723, "energy": 58.052059, "activity_lines": [ 7.142667, 7.397818, 7.54681, 7.586753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.99, "volume": 121906, "typical_volume": 139267.35, "trend": 7.644, "fair_value": 13.693397, "relative_strength": -20.492084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.449401, "energy": 61.920143, "activity_lines": [ 7.039333, 7.296364, 7.49681, 7.542538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }