{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5b56363-7213-4138-af26-7bef436aa012", "symbol": "8072", "name": "AV TECH Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.311, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.157, "architecture_energy": 47.651, "architecture_maturity": 21.802, "architecture_confidence": 85.545, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.99, "rotation_up": 12.66, "upward_expansion": 10.82, "deceleration": 38.13, "rotation_down": 63.91, "downward_expansion": 81.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.46, 27.129662, 27.352467, 27.454597 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.549999, "trend_reference": 27.874848, "distance_from_trend": -0.047528, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.739742, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076192, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.732009, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.104154, "excess_performance": -0.545526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076192, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022758, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37732, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124803, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104154, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 459740, "relative_activity": 0.308244, "balance": 0.785447, "dry_up": 0.454803, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07036, "annualized_volatility": 0.314644, "from_high_reference": -0.390506, "from_low_reference": 0.062 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.874848, "fair_value_reference": 28.739742, "structural_low": 25.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.006567, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.004653, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.354251, "worst_return": -0.059567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025424, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.031173, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.097872, "worst_return": -0.102888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.06369, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.043303, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.638989, "worst_return": -0.001901, "sufficient": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045369, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033149, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02583, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.177122, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", 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"2026-07-31", "close": 26.5, "volume": 966400, "typical_volume": 1509814.65, "trend": 28.095633, "fair_value": 28.718892, "relative_strength": -36.69459, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.630383, "energy": 23.985134, "activity_lines": [ 27.166666, 27.644996, 27.559726, 27.674732 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.1, "volume": 611115, "typical_volume": 1500997.05, "trend": 27.96646, "fair_value": 28.726395, "relative_strength": -37.905374, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.276851, "energy": 37.274618, "activity_lines": [ 26.633333, 27.343276, 27.432464, 27.545981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.549999, "volume": 459740, "typical_volume": 1491482.25, "trend": 27.874848, "fair_value": 28.739742, "relative_strength": -37.732009, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.156577, "energy": 47.650954, "activity_lines": [ 26.46, 27.129662, 27.352467, 27.454597 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }