{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5b814f5-1f30-41d1-b446-4f37b4c48ad4", "symbol": "1619", "name": "NEXT FUNDS TOPIX-17 CONSTRUCTION & MATERIALS ETF", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.972, "architecture_energy": 54.358, "architecture_maturity": 12.355, "architecture_confidence": 79.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.87, "rotation_up": 11.43, "upward_expansion": 11.1, "deceleration": 38.83, "rotation_down": 69.84, "downward_expansion": 82.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 46268.402865, 47352.804048, 47807.432496, 47943.951453 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 45470.0, "trend_reference": 48087.655339, "distance_from_trend": -0.054435, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33985.114646, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.719806, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071472, "excess_performance": -0.280731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054435, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039711, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337939, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071472, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.200335, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3973, "relative_activity": 0.845067, "balance": 0.200335, "dry_up": 0.857085, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05384, "annualized_volatility": 0.242564, "from_high_reference": -0.144336, "from_low_reference": 0.266574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48087.655339, "fair_value_reference": 33985.114646, "structural_low": 44140.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014817, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.005689, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.066732, "worst_return": -0.032017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031136, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.012427, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.105143, "worst_return": -0.044962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.07056, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.03685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.248877, 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46000.0, "volume": 5979, "typical_volume": 4617.45, "trend": 48069.655339, "fair_value": 33847.197441, "relative_strength": -12.398126, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.791252, "energy": 26.723532, "activity_lines": [ 47038.088542, 47863.343324, 48038.145164, 48111.671153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45470.0, "volume": 3973, "typical_volume": 4701.4, "trend": 48087.655339, "fair_value": 33985.114646, "relative_strength": -14.719806, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.971576, "energy": 54.357527, "activity_lines": [ 46268.402865, 47352.804048, 47807.432496, 47943.951453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }