{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5b94b08-88b9-4e1b-9fb6-319ed8c4e6c2", "symbol": "TM1", "name": "Technology Minerals Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.226, "architecture_energy": 57.077, "architecture_maturity": 66.036, "architecture_confidence": 92.92, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.15, "rotation_up": 28.13, "upward_expansion": 12.7, "deceleration": 43.1, "rotation_down": 39.92, "downward_expansion": 74.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 5e-06, 5e-06, 6e-06, 6e-06 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5e-06, "trend_reference": 7e-06, "distance_from_trend": -0.321267, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.7e-05, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.863898, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.757243, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.444444, "excess_performance": -0.49568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.321267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.863898, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.427572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120049259, "relative_activity": 1.563413, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.749206, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184615, "annualized_volatility": 0.471339, "from_high_reference": -0.615385, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7e-06, "fair_value_reference": 3.7e-05, "structural_low": 4e-06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.194907, "regime_survival": 0.92, "best_return": 1.2, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.352381, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.411948, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.350398, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.371768, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.111111, "worst_return": -0.852273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.64748, 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"2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.375, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ 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"relative_strength": -43.902439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.670497, "energy": 51.727172, "activity_lines": [ 5e-06, 5e-06, 6e-06, 7e-06 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5e-06, "volume": 56927992, "typical_volume": 70784187.95, "trend": 8e-06, "fair_value": 3.8e-05, "relative_strength": -43.599591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.185613, "energy": 57.380126, "activity_lines": [ 5e-06, 5e-06, 6e-06, 7e-06 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5e-06, "volume": 120049259, "typical_volume": 76786650.9, "trend": 7e-06, "fair_value": 3.7e-05, "relative_strength": -42.757243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.22603, "energy": 57.077153, "activity_lines": [ 5e-06, 5e-06, 6e-06, 6e-06 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }