{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b5bcacc9-fa21-421a-8d50-25cd7f87c8e2",
    "symbol": "SZG",
    "name": "Salzgitter AG",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 33.851,
    "architecture_energy": 19.309,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.893,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.744,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 58.01,
        "rotation_up": 39.58,
        "upward_expansion": 59.47,
        "deceleration": 62.94,
        "rotation_down": 18.11,
        "downward_expansion": 11.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        53.039999,
        52.589091,
        52.997626,
        51.457204
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 52.5,
    "trend_reference": 50.036791,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.049228,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 27.956331,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.877929,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 16.439177,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.035584,
    "excess_performance": -0.029056,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049228,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.124208,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.877929,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.079172,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.164392,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.332423,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035584,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.705824,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 549586,
      "relative_activity": 0.741991,
      "balance": 1.705824,
      "dry_up": 0.889203,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.126506,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.672169,
      "from_high_reference": -0.211119,
      "from_low_reference": 1.553805
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 50.036791,
      "fair_value_reference": 27.956331,
      "structural_low": 32.022738,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.019563,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006963,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.409574,
        "worst_return": -0.407061,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.098512,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.084054,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.784737,
        "worst_return": -0.316597,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.241983,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.204227,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.858316,
        "worst_return": -0.337104,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.174314,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.034778,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 1.121794,
        "worst_return": -0.31341,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2024-02-23",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.401491,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.085106,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": 0.016457,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 55.349998,
        "volume": 854593,
        "typical_volume": 855020.15,
        "trend": 49.068292,
        "fair_value": 27.486701,
        "relative_strength": 35.04885,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 33.229783,
        "energy": 23.738711,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.69,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 55.049999,
        "volume": 630994,
        "typical_volume": 829956.2,
        "trend": 49.587954,
        "fair_value": 27.645821,
        "relative_strength": 31.089484,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 39.478876,
        "energy": 20.087251,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 51.55,
        "volume": 599327,
        "typical_volume": 818767.3,
        "trend": 49.818805,
        "fair_value": 27.790703,
        "relative_strength": 18.784722,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.094647,
        "energy": 21.428768,
        "activity_lines": [
          53.183333,
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          52.794075,
          51.284224
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 52.5,
        "volume": 549586,
        "typical_volume": 740691.15,
        "trend": 50.036791,
        "fair_value": 27.956331,
        "relative_strength": 16.439177,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.850821,
        "energy": 19.309253,
        "activity_lines": [
          53.039999,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}