{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5be65c3-e237-4468-b2c3-80a82112ed8c", "symbol": "6103", "name": "Avid Electronics Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.302, "architecture_energy": 55.692, "architecture_maturity": 49.926, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.79, "rotation_up": 22.21, "upward_expansion": 9.41, "deceleration": 60.17, "rotation_down": 60.56, "downward_expansion": 85.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.513333, 30.275454, 33.010238, 35.028817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.5, "trend_reference": 36.565, "distance_from_trend": -0.193218, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.41257, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.270029, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.792663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.155937, "excess_performance": -0.597309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193218, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046711, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.270029, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.447927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056744, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.155937, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.376872, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8913, "relative_activity": 0.485088, "balance": 0.376872, "dry_up": 1.592713, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108344, "annualized_volatility": 0.534915, "from_high_reference": -0.459707, "from_low_reference": 0.098696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.565, "fair_value_reference": 40.41257, "structural_low": 26.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007757, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.005869, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.40367, "worst_return": -0.158612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.06072, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.052034, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.498055, "worst_return": -0.11631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.086233, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.17968, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.305447, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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40.652747, "relative_strength": -47.29849, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.980691, "energy": 89.222411, "activity_lines": [ 31.68, 33.883637, 36.787143, 37.392904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.200001, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 25819.9, "trend": 37.406667, "fair_value": 40.605741, "relative_strength": -43.484127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.254174, "energy": 89.886292, "activity_lines": [ 30.86, 32.931819, 35.98881, 36.916667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.799999, "volume": 15138, "typical_volume": 26576.8, "trend": 37.301667, "fair_value": 40.556576, "relative_strength": -38.878414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.74859, "energy": 83.324481, "activity_lines": [ 31.326667, 32.630909, 35.460715, 36.619463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.4, "volume": 85007, "typical_volume": 28805.25, "trend": 37.033334, "fair_value": 40.496118, "relative_strength": -45.540835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.382458, "energy": 64.666484, "activity_lines": [ 30.406667, 31.618182, 34.52381, 36.045162 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.549999, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 20115.5, "trend": 36.77, "fair_value": 40.453533, "relative_strength": -45.653121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.343941, "energy": 60.135361, "activity_lines": [ 29.716666, 30.774545, 33.681191, 35.49785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 29.5, "volume": 8913, "typical_volume": 18374.0, "trend": 36.565, "fair_value": 40.41257, "relative_strength": -44.792663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.301895, "energy": 55.692227, "activity_lines": [ 29.513333, 30.275454, 33.010238, 35.028817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }