{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5ccf7fd-f977-427f-999c-0220e3e41158", "symbol": "EZA", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI SOUTH AFRICA ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.144, "architecture_energy": 13.531, "architecture_maturity": 31.003, "architecture_confidence": 86.786, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.03, "rotation_up": 25.78, "upward_expansion": 15.4, "deceleration": 39.37, "rotation_down": 34.24, "downward_expansion": 65.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.965333, 64.424417, 65.27478, 66.206085 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 69.65, "trend_reference": 67.910564, "distance_from_trend": 0.025614, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.67849, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.460826, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.12028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048756, "excess_performance": -0.174381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025614, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -6.5e-05, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.460826, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094935, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041203, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568188, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 626873, "relative_activity": 0.618464, "balance": 0.568188, "dry_up": 0.876044, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054429, "annualized_volatility": 0.386018, "from_high_reference": -0.130029, "from_low_reference": 0.342052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.910564, "fair_value_reference": 47.67849, "structural_low": 60.265, 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68.428454, "fair_value": 46.953958, "relative_strength": -9.730871, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.335795, "energy": 42.574185, "activity_lines": [ 64.206247, 64.82379, 66.0219, 67.236176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.36, "volume": 683093, "typical_volume": 1187614.8, "trend": 68.300502, "fair_value": 47.123022, "relative_strength": -10.447824, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.187517, "energy": 55.046148, "activity_lines": [ 63.456, 64.231936, 65.578667, 66.844663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.07, "volume": 1672222, "typical_volume": 1136819.7, "trend": 68.041089, "fair_value": 47.270244, "relative_strength": -11.819243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.390656, "energy": 60.862112, "activity_lines": [ 62.484, 63.548328, 65.096141, 66.378179 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.62, "volume": 569630, "typical_volume": 1094763.8, "trend": 67.896381, "fair_value": 47.452923, "relative_strength": -9.21729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.121877, "energy": 49.104399, "activity_lines": [ 62.74, 63.417331, 64.89451, 66.092948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.65, "volume": 626873, "typical_volume": 1013596.2, "trend": 67.910564, "fair_value": 47.67849, "relative_strength": -4.12028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.144056, "energy": 13.530868, "activity_lines": [ 64.965333, 64.424417, 65.27478, 66.206085 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }