{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5cd0e34-4cc9-486f-aac6-08ab4bb17250", "symbol": "ECP", "name": "ECP Emerging Growth Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.592, "architecture_energy": 29.998, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.035, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.44, "rotation_up": 27.26, "upward_expansion": 16.46, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 32.42, "downward_expansion": 64.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.722667, 0.714455, 0.742429, 0.775378 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.77, "trend_reference": 0.832047, "distance_from_trend": -0.074571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.112311, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307748, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.077085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.199051, "excess_performance": -0.262757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142517, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307748, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044876, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199051, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.245454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39922, "relative_activity": 1.137008, "balance": 0.245454, "dry_up": 0.85297, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072428, "annualized_volatility": 0.514112, "from_high_reference": -0.403359, "from_low_reference": 0.262295 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.832047, "fair_value_reference": 1.112311, "structural_low": 0.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.027303, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.01794, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.188119, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.079204, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.183696, "worst_return": -0.236051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002436, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.140465, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.094919, "worst_return": -0.321434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024648, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028796, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 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1.11631, "relative_strength": -23.659277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.739672, "energy": 59.157926, "activity_lines": [ 0.719, 0.721818, 0.757048, 0.794072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.64, "volume": 77422, "typical_volume": 33696.85, "trend": 0.842492, "fair_value": 1.11395, "relative_strength": -36.441448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.206585, "energy": 61.423027, "activity_lines": [ 0.698, 0.705364, 0.743024, 0.780055 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.77, "volume": 39922, "typical_volume": 35111.45, "trend": 0.832047, "fair_value": 1.112311, "relative_strength": -25.077085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.591592, "energy": 29.998468, "activity_lines": [ 0.722667, 0.714455, 0.742429, 0.775378 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }