{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5d94ae7-9ee6-4cd4-80f7-80c2988e5d1b", "symbol": "FSEA", "name": "First Seacoast Bancorp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.669, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.704, "architecture_energy": 96.035, "architecture_maturity": 62.956, "architecture_confidence": 92.833, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 64.61, "upward_expansion": 97.67, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 30.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.983967, 16.932527, 16.343729, 15.524023 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.1099, "trend_reference": 14.568387, "distance_from_trend": 0.174454, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.635235, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.608794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.148272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.306099, "excess_performance": 0.118646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174454, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.608794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.121483, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.306099, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.146559, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32143, "relative_activity": 0.249178, "balance": 1.146559, "dry_up": 0.326433, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007597, "annualized_volatility": 0.562682, "from_high_reference": -0.00292, "from_low_reference": 0.689033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.568387, "fair_value_reference": 10.635235, "structural_low": 11.075, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.00344, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.004237, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.199662, "worst_return": -0.093089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00793, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.016412, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.23951, "worst_return": -0.089915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.091215, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.001794, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125243, "worst_return": -0.05838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.181193, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.044146, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.240777, "worst_return": 0.03272, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-10-07", "end": "2022-11-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025379, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-02", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.35727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150712, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067661, "active": false }, { "regime": 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13.42639, "fair_value": 10.175852, "relative_strength": 13.495661, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.511075, "energy": 89.57431, "activity_lines": [ 16.781667, 15.776818, 14.482096, 14.000209 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 16.77, "volume": 176751, "typical_volume": 119564.3, "trend": 13.59139, "fair_value": 10.232551, "relative_strength": 9.944169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.082538, "energy": 82.162562, "activity_lines": [ 16.787333, 16.165, 14.76423, 14.215926 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 16.93, "volume": 28595, "typical_volume": 119794.0, "trend": 13.761723, "fair_value": 10.289666, "relative_strength": 15.868721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.33342, "energy": 67.684725, "activity_lines": [ 16.840333, 16.497636, 15.042603, 14.43132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.88, "volume": 50178, "typical_volume": 120622.95, "trend": 13.92639, "fair_value": 10.34723, "relative_strength": 14.181158, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.536322, "energy": 65.326129, "activity_lines": [ 16.862, 16.716273, 15.297976, 14.632499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.85, "volume": 28237, "typical_volume": 121558.5, "trend": 14.07739, "fair_value": 10.403833, "relative_strength": 11.655009, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.3059, "energy": 63.817387, "activity_lines": [ 16.863, 16.826545, 15.534881, 14.821119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.89, "volume": 32734, "typical_volume": 122791.5, "trend": 14.167723, "fair_value": 10.460756, "relative_strength": 16.348234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.971968, "energy": 64.151676, "activity_lines": [ 16.874667, 16.844455, 15.757738, 15.002578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.9, "volume": 76577, "typical_volume": 126300.85, "trend": 14.29839, "fair_value": 10.516412, "relative_strength": 17.838831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.309125, "energy": 62.669934, "activity_lines": [ 16.886667, 16.861091, 15.963071, 15.178854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.97, "volume": 26980, "typical_volume": 127541.05, "trend": 14.43139, "fair_value": 10.574424, "relative_strength": 17.285982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.674873, "energy": 74.422101, "activity_lines": [ 16.913333, 16.886455, 16.156071, 15.351215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.1099, "volume": 32143, "typical_volume": 128995.95, "trend": 14.568387, "fair_value": 10.635235, "relative_strength": 12.148272, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.704204, "energy": 96.034767, "activity_lines": [ 16.983967, 16.932527, 16.343729, 15.524023 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }