{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5dba26e-29fe-4c30-8e24-27a66b416c1d", "symbol": "600593", "name": "Dalian Sunasia Tourism Holding CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.391, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.852, "architecture_energy": 5.045, "architecture_maturity": 20.15, "architecture_confidence": 75.649, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.95, "rotation_up": 29.31, "upward_expansion": 36.21, "deceleration": 31.27, "rotation_down": 26.19, "downward_expansion": 42.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.043334, 37.875273, 37.249191, 37.280667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.299999, "trend_reference": 38.108333, "distance_from_trend": 0.03127, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.864167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36155, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.263312, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.160256, "excess_performance": -0.117053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03127, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064175, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36155, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098296, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012633, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171363, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.056459, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20005793, "relative_activity": 1.074439, "balance": 2.056459, "dry_up": 1.281477, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0798, "annualized_volatility": 0.50244, "from_high_reference": -0.409467, "from_low_reference": 0.288102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.108333, "fair_value_reference": 28.864167, "structural_low": 32.330002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.02719, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.01921, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.320702, "worst_return": -0.074919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054709, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067716, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.278189, "worst_return": -0.136252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.181596, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.158162, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.688765, "worst_return": -0.034591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 38.650002, "volume": 31033068, "typical_volume": 19206135.9, "trend": 38.521, "fair_value": 28.4525, "relative_strength": 4.595545, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.447937, "energy": 4.953977, "activity_lines": [ 37.875335, 37.834001, 36.983381, 37.420753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.709999, "volume": 23272161, "typical_volume": 19085893.25, "trend": 38.311333, "fair_value": 28.580449, "relative_strength": -4.652, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.342761, "energy": 14.604838, "activity_lines": [ 37.246667, 37.522546, 36.877143, 37.239398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.830002, "volume": 21132126, "typical_volume": 18868276.1, "trend": 38.179, "fair_value": 28.720321, "relative_strength": 0.468111, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.387023, "energy": 9.627034, "activity_lines": [ 37.434668, 37.595637, 36.991286, 37.208344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.299999, "volume": 20005793, "typical_volume": 18619750.75, "trend": 38.108333, "fair_value": 28.864167, "relative_strength": 1.263312, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.851625, "energy": 5.044956, "activity_lines": [ 38.043334, 37.875273, 37.249191, 37.280667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }