{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5de1010-e525-40c8-b6be-13bb66a3f6ef", "symbol": "002721", "name": "Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 92.67, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.078, "architecture_energy": 14.571, "architecture_maturity": 37.963, "architecture_confidence": 72.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.75, "rotation_up": 32.88, "upward_expansion": 22.3, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 22.47, "downward_expansion": 60.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.564667, 2.443273, 2.543, 2.674215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.08, "trend_reference": 2.866333, "distance_from_trend": 0.074544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.935897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049083, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.714172, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142061, "excess_performance": -0.149461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088123, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049083, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020541, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200534, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142061, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.823924, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 649075700, "relative_activity": 3.538885, "balance": 0.823924, "dry_up": 1.762463, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082418, "annualized_volatility": 0.493402, "from_high_reference": -0.288684, "from_low_reference": 0.432558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.866333, "fair_value_reference": 2.935897, "structural_low": 2.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003876, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.241135, "worst_return": -0.185304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062459, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.005627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.425532, "worst_return": -0.242525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012581, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.031939, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.241135, "worst_return": -0.106312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018797, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080597, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049133, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027356, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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2.525762, 2.690301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.43, "volume": 200108074, "typical_volume": 159459166.1, "trend": 2.868667, "fair_value": 2.940064, "relative_strength": -22.413137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.960331, "energy": 55.703194, "activity_lines": [ 2.302, 2.312909, 2.501762, 2.660581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.08, "volume": 649075700, "typical_volume": 183412486.1, "trend": 2.866333, "fair_value": 2.935897, "relative_strength": -5.714172, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.077727, "energy": 14.57109, "activity_lines": [ 2.564667, 2.443273, 2.543, 2.674215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }